The Vladimir Putin and Lady R debacles have revealed a deadly cocktail of incompetence, lack of diplomatic skills and wavering commitment to principle in the conduct of foreign policy by government.
For months, culminating in the announcement that the Russian president will not attend a summit in SA next month, Pretoria has been trying to dig itself out of a diplomatic hole it created. This was after two separate but related developments.
First, in December, the Russian vessel Lady R docked at Simon’s Town Naval Base in Cape Town. Its cargo has become a source of speculation. It took unguarded comments by Reuben Brigety, the US ambassador to SA, to bring the matter to a head. He claimed that the vessel had picked up arms for Russia’s army in its unlawful invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.
Denials by the defence ministry of the serious claims — which questioned Pretoria’s supposed neutral stance in the conflict — proved insufficient. Forced into a corner including threats of loss of preferential trade access to the US market by SA’s exporters and a huge fall of the rand, President Cyril Ramaphosa bought himself time by appointing a panel to investigate the matter. The panel, led by retired judge John Mojapelo, has completed its work including a site visit to the naval base.
Second, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for forcefully removing thousands of Ukrainians from their country to Russia. Again, Pretoria, which refused to condemn Russia’s aggression, found itself in a tight spot.
Business, which has normally allowed the government a free hand on foreign policy, lost patience and called out the misalignment between our foreign policy and our economic interests.
After task teams and numerous legal opinions and affidavits, Putin will not attend the summit of leaders of Brics — a club including Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA — next month in SA.
The Mojapelo report will probably give the government some relief especially if its findings are released. But both episodes will do little to save Pretoria’s face. They have already cost us.
Costs have included SA not being invited to the G7 summit of the world’s richest nations in Japan, and doubts whether the US will keep SA as a participant in the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), the unilateral trade pact that grants African nations duty-free access for thousands of their exports.
As a result of Pretoria’s mishandling of these issues, business and Ebrahim Patel, the trade, industry & competition minister, have been lobbying US legislators and the Biden administration to retain SA’s exporters on the Agoa beneficiary list.
Domestically, civil society and business — two constituencies that enjoy higher public trust than the government — will not trust that Pretoria will in future place the country’s economic interests ahead of historic Cold War-era solidarities.
The fiasco has also revealed us as an unreliable partner to our trading partners, especially those from the West.
Now that the storm is over, Pretoria needs to show that it has learnt its lessons. Like India, we need more career diplomats than political appointees in strategic markets and our economic interests should underscore our foreign policy.
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