Since transforming itself from the Organisation of African Unity into the African Union, the AU has aspired, among its many lofty goals, to silence guns across the continent by 2020. This aspiration has eluded it dismally. The AU is drifting towards irrelevance.
Two factions of Sudan’s armed forces — the paramilitary Rapid Support Force and the statutory army — have been at each other’s throats around Khartoum for months. A fortnight ago, army generals staged another coup in Niger. The eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has hardly known peace even though it has had an elected government for nearly two decades. The Horn of Africa has an uneasy peace.
Insurgents such as jihadist movements have turned parts of the continent into war zones.
Comoros was added to the list of African countries that sought and failed to end the 18-month illegal war by Russia against neighbouring Ukraine. Evidence that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, doesn’t take the African peace effort seriously includes his stopping the Black Sea Grain Initiative despite Africa’s pleas.
It was only days before his St Petersburg Russia-Africa summit that he announced free grain handouts for a handful of the poorest African countries.
President Azali Assoumani of Comoros, the present AU chair, cracked an invitation to the G7 summit only after the Japanese host decided to snub SA, hitherto a regular guest, for its proximity to the Kremlin. This was hardly a sign of the AU’s relevance.
To be fair, it’s not only Russia or the West that is ignoring the AU. African governments themselves don’t make it the first port of call when conflicts break out. For example, Niger’s embattled president, Mohamed Bazoum, turned to France, not the AU, to intervene in his country.
Remarkably, the AU’s peace & security council, the structure tasked with silencing the guns in Africa, has been missing in action.
The vacuum left by the AU has been filled by outsiders and Western powers such as the US and France. In the case of Sudan, the Americans and Saudis stepped in quickly to fill the void left by the AU. They established humanitarian corridors to allow refugees to flee and for medical supplies to reach civilians. Their next challenge is to ensure that a durable ceasefire is achieved.
To their credit, regional bodies, notably the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), have tried to fill the void left by the AU. Quite rightly, they have threatened action against Niger’s army. But it is doubtful they have enough firepower to overcome it.
In a perverse way, the AU authored its own irrelevance. Three reasons stand out. First, its policies require suspending unelected governments from participation in its structures and activities. This immediately weakens its channels of engagement. It leaves them with only back channels as a way to hold sway in conflicts.
Second, and more concerning, it just doesn’t have the capacity for early warning of conflicts and/or credible military force to intervene decisively in conflict zones. Its reliance on external sources for funding makes this problem worse.
And third, unlike other regional bodies such as the EU, every change in political leadership — especially at the African Commission or its executive arm — is always accompanied by changes in personnel. This bleeds skills and undermines continuity and institutional memory.
In addition, the AU cannot face down its own members. Two cases illustrate this. Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu-PF routinely steals election after election and the AU endorses the fraudulent outcome. President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his late predecessor Robert Mugabe harass the opposition without a word from the AU. In Rwanda, Paul Kagame not only ill-treats his political opponents, he also interferes with his neighbours by supporting rebels in eastern DRC. Again, no word of condemnation from the AU.
Though it is failing to silence the guns, the AU is succeeding on other fronts. For example, its African Continental Free Trade Area pact is scoring some commendable wins. These include cutting the costs of intra-African trade transactions being piloted under the auspices of the African Export Import Bank. If this pilot succeeds, trade transactions will no longer be conducted in the US dollar, which will significantly reduce costs.
Restoring the AU’s relevance will require the political will of Africa’s leaders and the help of its rich friends such as the Western powers and China. Africans must also pay their share of its running costs.
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