All of a sudden it is hardly more than 10 days to go to the opening of the Brics summit in Sandton on August 22.
The controversial question of whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would come has dominated headlines, but now that has been sorted out attention has turned, belatedly, to the summit itself. There has been a multiplicity of meetings and side summits in preparation for the main event and almost daily briefings by the department of international relations & co-operation on SA’s state of readiness and arrangements for the summit.
The question that needs to be asked is what would constitute a successful summit for SA. SA almost did itself irreparable harm with international investors and trading partners with its insistence on inviting Putin in person. Now this is off the table, success is probably mainly a question of doing ourselves no more harm.
As it is, SA is like a child thrilled to have a seat at the table with the grown-ups. It is a small player in a rather random grouping, invented originally by Goldman Sachs, that includes two of the world’s most important economic players: China and India.
In theory, the country hosting the summit has the power to set the agenda and to influence it in ways that benefit its own national or regional interests. In practice, what is playing out at Brics is part of a heated geopolitical contest in which SA is too small, remote and economically insignificant to have much influence.
So, a first marker of success is practical: will SA host a streamlined and well-organised summit? So far, the omens are not entirely encouraging. SA sent out invitations rather belatedly at the end of July. It has invited no fewer than 67 heads of state, including almost every African head of state, and a further 20 international dignitaries, including heads of international financial institutions and regional blocs.
That is a lot of flights into and out of Waterkloof Air Base and a lot of accommodation and security for important people and their entourages. It is a lot of logistics altogether. Let’s hope the department of international relations & co-operation — and Sandton — are up to it.
We have to hope too that the meetings themselves run smoothly. So far, it is not entirely clear how the agenda will work, and whether, for example, heads of state other than Putin will be able to attend virtually. Non-Brics leaders who can attend only the “outreach” programme on the third day might want to do so.
But the second more crucial marker of success will be whether SA manages not to alienate its trading partners in the West any more than it already has, and to keep the five-member Brics together.
The big issue at this summit will be whether the bloc expands to include more members. Russia supports this to gain legitimacy and influence for itself. China is keen on expansion because it wants to build Brics as an anti-Western bloc to counter the G20. Several of the world’s leading dictatorships, from Saudi Arabia to Iran to Venezuela, are keen to join — and SA seems depressingly keen to host them.
But India and Brazil are not keen on the expansion plan. They want to keep their ties with the West, particularly the US. They define themselves as democracies, notwithstanding Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s increasingly authoritarian ways. And India and China are in conflict over some serious issues.
SA is caught in the middle of these global dramas. It will have to tread carefully to ensure it does not damage its global reputation further than it already has.
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