On Tuesday, the UN published the first global stocktake, which shows how nations are (or are not) progressing towards meeting their goals to cut harmful emissions in line with the Paris climate change agreement.
Simon Stiell, UN climate change executive secretary, describes the stocktake as an “accountability exercise” that is “intended to make sure every party is holding up their end of the bargain”.
But as the report shows, countries failed, first by setting the bar for cutting emissions too low, and then by failing to meet even those inadequate targets.
Under the Paris agreement adopted in 2015, countries resolved to cut emissions at a pace that would hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.
To achieve this, the signatories had to set nationally determined contributions (NDCs) which include their targets for reducing CO² emissions by 2030, and to ultimately achieve net-zero emissions by about 2050.
SA, for example, submitted a revised NDC at COP26 in 2021 committing to reduce emission by between 20% and 30% by 2030. It is here where ambition falls short. According to the stocktake, there is a wide gap — the size of two Chinas — between emissions levels needed to limit global warming to below 2˚C and the emissions implied by NDCs that countries have committed to.
Based on current NDCs, the gap between ambitions for 2030 and required emissions cuts to meet the Paris goals is about 22-billion tonnes of CO². This is twice what was produced by China, the largest emitter of CO² in a year.
The report warns of “a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments to limit warming to 1.5°C”.
In fact, in less than two years the rising global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will have to peak, followed by “rapid and deep reductions in GHG emissions” to not exceed this warming limit.
The 1.5˚C goal is important because warming above this threshold will result in “irreversible” impacts to natural systems, which will increase for every fraction of a degree of global warming.
The stocktake does soften the blow by saying not all is lost, and that many of the tools to achieve the emissions reduction necessary already exist and are cost-effective. All that is needed is more ambition and more money — a lot more money!
“Trillions of dollars” need to be “unlocked and redeployed” to meet global investment needs. This will have to include shifting “significant financial flows” that are still being directed, including through government subsidies, towards investments in high-emissions activities such as fossil fuel developments.
Where this money will come from, and who will get it, will be one of the main discussion points at COP28 in Dubai this December.
African nations have made it clear that rich nations caused the climate crisis through historic emissions and must pay for climate-change interventions rather than developing countries, who contributed little to the crisis but are now suffering.
They want to see developed nations make good on promises made in Paris to obtain at least $100bn a year in climate finance for developing countries.
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