The SA delegation to the UN’s climate conference COP28 which gets under way in Dubai on Thursday will be asking for much and offering little in return.
Having so far secured about $11.6bn in international financing pledges, SA will be looking for more funders to come on board to help finance the R1.5-trillion (about $80bn) Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) that it launched at COP27 in Egypt last year. SA is not just looking for whatever funding is available, it wants grant funding, highly concessional loans and private investment that will not add to the state’s already large debt burden.
However, with the country planning to delay the decommissioning of coal-fired power plants as it battles with a worsening energy crisis, it seems ever more likely that SA will miss its globally committed 2030 emissions goal — targets which were already inadequate as the country’s contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5˚C.
This could make negotiation at COP28 awkward for SA. Perhaps it will be spared embarrassment given that many other countries are also failing to meet their commitments.
A report released earlier this year by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that policies and laws put in place to give effect to nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — the climate action plans that countries have committed to under the Paris Agreement — are not sufficient and will make it difficult to limit warming to 2˚C, never mind 1.5˚C.
An assessment by the Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action, rates SA’s 2030 NDC (which commits the country to reduce emissions by 22%-33% by 2030) as insufficient to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5˚C. Moreover, under current policies, SA will not reduce emissions enough to meet its NDC target range for 2030.
At COP26 in Scotland, SA signed a landmark partnership with France, Germany, the UK, the US and the EU under which these countries pledged $8.5bn towards SA’s energy transition — that is, reducing reliance on coal-fired energy while increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix.
Based on the Just Energy Transition Partnership SA developed the JET IP that set out the country’s total investment needs for the next five years. This R1.5-trillion plan was presented at COP27 and subsequently more countries came on board, including Denmark and the Netherlands, growing international funding for SA’s decarbonisation plans to $11.6bn.
This year, SA will present the implementation plan for the JET IP that was approved by the cabinet earlier this month in the hope of getting even more countries and funding institutions to pledge towards its just transition — the only problem being, SA does not have a decarbonisation plan to show.
The failure of the department of mineral resources & energy to publish a revised Integrated Resource Plan to replace the 2019 version, and the delay by the Treasury, Eskom and the electricity ministry to present a clear plan about for how long the decommissioning of which coal plants will be delayed means that SA will have little evidence to support whatever plans it hopes to entice potential funders with in Dubai.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.