Because we were not born yesterday, it is hard to accept that the death of Alexei Navalny in a notorious former Soviet gulag was natural and that it had nothing to do with his rising stature in Russia’s politics.
Navalny, Russia’s foremost opposition leader who had been in jail on trumped-up charges, died on Friday under mysterious circumstances. On Sunday, his battered body was found in a morgue. For years, he has been an irritant in the violent dictatorship of the government of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. His first term of imprisonment was on charges of embezzlement.
Navalny was one more than 600 long-standing political prisoners caged in Russia’s grim jails, and one of the thousands who have been imprisoned in the past two years for their opposition to Putin’s unpopular war against Ukraine. He was the poster boy of political resistance in Russia. His name is well known in the capitals of the West and Global South. His death, which sparked protests in Russian cities, was not unexpected. He had previously survived a poisoning attempt.
Putin’s critics — journalists, politicians and erstwhile oligarchs — have lost their lives over the years as his regime’s tolerance for dissent has grown thinner. No matter what the bots and the diplomats say, Putin’s regime murdered Navalny.
World leaders, including some of Putin’s allies in the Global South, had warned him about the grim prospect of Navalny’s death in jail after his assassination scare. Now these warnings and fears have come to fruition.
His death is significant. In weeks, Russians will go to the polls to elect a new president. In all likelihood the election will, as always, be won by Putin. Navalny will not be on the ballot box in next month’s election. However, his name will be on many voters’ minds if they cast their ballots in the sham elections.
The protests that were triggered by news of his death testify to the fact that Putin might have lost a formidable opponent. But many Russians have gained a martyr. On the face of it, Putin looks stronger. But in reality, his grip on power is less secure than it once was. In disposing of Navalny, Putin has revealed his weakness: he simply cannot win a fair fight.
In 2023, he faced a humiliating insurrection by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group — a group of mercenaries who fought alongside demotivated Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Prigozhin died in a plane crash a few months later after challenging Putin’s authority. The cause of the crash has yet to be plausibly explained.
Navalny’s death is just another in the string of challenges faced by Putin. He cannot jail everyone.
Beyond this saga, Russia, most likely still ruled by Putin, will need to recommit to a rules-based world order. Its role in global affairs has hardly been constructive. Its use of its veto vote in the UN Security Council has been an unhelpful tit-for-tat with the West, reducing the council to a talk shop.
The world needs to rein in the Kremlin. Navalny’s death may not be in vain. For years, he provided a solid and credible voice of hope for millions of Russians. This needs to be kept alive.
Facing Western isolation, Putin has relied on the support of the Global South. The support from Brics — Brazil, India, China and SA — has been like oxygen. With the expansion of the bloc, to include rogue states such as Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, he is enjoying support from a collection of countries with questionable human rights records — and our own.
It is not known whether Navalny was murdered before, during or after ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s speech to a decolonial summit in Moscow this weekend, but the message was clear. The ANC stands full-square behind the last great military colonial empire — Russia — and it is evidently comfortable to be present when that empire turns to murder and torture. That is something the secretary-general’s elders may remember from a darker time in our own country’s history.
SA will pay for its unprincipled, immoral and inconsistent approach to foreign relations. For now, our politicians are preoccupied with the coming election, but let there be no doubt: South Africans will have time aplenty to rue the ANC’s bizarre love affair with Vladimir Putin.
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