Ebrahim Raisi, the president of Iran who died on Sunday in a helicopter crash, will be missed by a few in his country. But his death, under mysterious circumstances, should be a source of concern to Iran’s neighbours and Brics+ — the Global South grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, SA and, lately, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Iran and Egypt.
In Iran, he will be remembered as a young prosecutor and judge (later the head of the judiciary) who sent thousands of people deemed to be enemies of the regime to their deaths. This was before he won an election, widely believed to have been rigged, to become president.
For Iranians, his death, while regrettable, opens a phase of uncertainty. The constitution is clear about what needs to happen in the next month-and-a-half. Raisi’s deputy, a bureaucrat, will take over until the presidential election scheduled for June 28. The foreign minister, who died in the same helicopter, has already been replaced.
Raisi’s death has also sparked conspiracy theories. Some have blamed the crash on the US and/or Israel. An investigation into the cause of the crash, widely blamed on bad weather, is under way. This probe will also have to answer why two other helicopters, which were escorting the president, were unaffected by the bad weather.
The Israel theory appears far-fetched. There is no history of Tel Aviv assassinating sitting heads of state, even with its unrivalled capacity to do so.
Power struggle
Undoubtedly, a power struggle over who succeeds Raisi, a controversial figure, will ensue. Interim president Mohammad Mokhber is unlikely to feature much. Even the next president is unlikely to wield real power to influence the direction the sanctions-battered country will take. Real power in Iran is in the hands of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But at 85, the supreme leader is old. He can only oversee a transition to a new president. His successor, however, remains a known unknowable.
In so many ways, Raisi’s death has come at the wrong time for Iran. Western sanctions have brought its economy to its knees. Hopes that Joe Biden’s administration would revive the nuclear deal with Iran — binned by Donald Trump — have been dashed. Now, more uncertainty prevails over who will occupy the Oval Office in the White House after the November election.
In his three years in office, Raisi had sought to thaw relations with Iran’s neighbours. His death leaves that project incomplete. Around the world, he will be remembered as the Iranian president who fired hundreds of missiles directly at Israel in the past month in a retaliatory strike. Fortunately, Israel has been measured in its response thanks to pressure from Washington. A full-blown regional conflagration has been averted, at least for now.
During his brief tenure, Raisi increased the number of Iran’s proxies in the region. So Iran did not need to stoke the fires itself.
In the Global South, his legacy includes shepherding Khamenei’s pet project of reversing the West’s isolation by joining developing country clubs such as Brics+. Iran became a new member of the group this January.
His death will not mean much to Brics+ in the immediate to medium term. However, the combination of his demise and the departure of Khamenei might cause turbulence in the anti-West alliance.
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