Kenya is no stranger to violence. Its history is littered with many cases of ethnic and political clashes and terror attacks in urban centres.
One such outbreak of violence, after disputed elections, led to William Ruto, Kenya’s unpopular president, and his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, being hauled before the International Criminal Court (ICC) on war crime charges.
However, in the past few weeks, most parts of the country have witnessed an outbreak of largely peaceful protests by young people. Their grievance is rising economic hardship arising from the planned tax hikes by Ruto.
Ruto, who proposed the tax increases to avoid a debt default and meet conditions by the IMF, World Bank and Chinese lenders, miscalculated the youth’s resolve and anger. His response was clumsy: initially, he sought to crush the protest movement which, unlike previous protests, is not aligned to any political party.
Hundreds of activists, who call themselves Gen Z, are in prison, and more than 40 have been killed at the hands of police and soldiers. A week ago, Ruto, who escaped the ICC charges after the disappearance of witnesses to become Kenyatta’s deputy, caved in. He offered to talk to the activists.
When the protests continued, including hounding out of churches parliamentarians who tried to sell the new tax rates, he relented, and withdrew the Kenya Finance Bill. The protests have not stopped. Now, the protesters are demanding that Ruto steps down.
Under the circumstances, the solution might lie with approaching the IMF, World Bank and other lenders for a breather
The anti-tax protests were just a spark. For years, discontent has been brewing over corruption, the cost-of-living crisis and security threats including piracy. In addition, Ruto is simply unpopular in Kenya. Late last month, in another controversial move, he sent hundreds of Kenyan police to Haiti, which is emerging from the toppling of an elected government by gangsters.
The debt problem is not his own creation. But as Kenyatta’s two-term deputy, he was part of an administration that accumulated the debt.
The main difficulty with this crisis is that the protesters have no identifiable leader. They are bound together only by the hardships and, lately, resentment against Ruto. His election was disputed by the main opposition under Raila Odinga. Challenges in law courts failed to overturn the results.
Without a leader or leaders to negotiate with it is hard to imagine a solution to the debt crisis. The MPs, who have been thoroughly intimidated by the protesters, are in no position to broker a truce or negotiate a durable debt solution.
Under the circumstances, the solution might lie with approaching the IMF, World Bank and other lenders for a breather, including rescheduling, while trying to figure out a lasting solution.
Kenya, a regional power house, was a participant in China’s now paused Belt and Road Initiative, an ambitious intercontinental infrastructure build programme. So China will have to come to the party.
The second problem — Ruto’s political survival — is even trickier. As matters stand, he might not have legitimacy but he remains Kenya’s elected leader. That reality has to be respected.
A politically unstable Kenya is bad for East Africa, the continent and the West, which regards Nairobi as a military ally in Africa. This makes the instability the world’s problem. For a start, Kenya’s neighbours ought to broker a political dialogue in Kenya.
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