Energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa is on a roll, with much to be confident about after more than 100 days without load-shedding and a sharp reduction in Eskom’s use of diesel backup generators so far this year.
That doesn’t mean load-shedding is a thing of the past. The “load reduction” imposed in parts of the country recently has, after all, kept a lid on demand at a critical — some might say convenient — time.
Sporadic bouts of load-shedding are still likely in future, but the happy reality is that through a combination of reduced demand from a depressed mining sector, significant private investment in renewable energy and a notable improvement in Eskom plant performance, SA is finally over the worst of its power crisis, with additional generation capacity still coming on stream.
Which might explain Ramokgopa’s hubris in announcing, out of the blue, that work is at an advanced stage to “finalise the procurement structure” for a new 2,500MW nuclear power station. Not so fast! Such decisions must by law be rational and align with the country’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), the current version of which (2019) is well out of date.
Any such plan would also need to be approved by the Treasury and it is no secret that the national coffers are severely depleted. The draft 2023 IRP’s nuclear proposals have been widely criticised, and will almost certainly be challenged in court as irrational if they make it into the final version.
Ramokgopa has done well to keep the lights on, but best not to get ahead of himself.
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