President Cyril Ramaphosa’s first state of the nation address in February 2018 was a clear statement of his government’s intent to do better after the damage of the Zuma era. He ended it by quoting the inspirational “Thuma Mina” words from the Hugh Masekela song that anticipated “a day of renewal, of new beginnings”.
Ramaphosa’s speech on Thursday at the opening of SA’s new parliament is not going to be called a state of the nation address this time. But it will be seen as the equivalent of the second Sona that the president has in the past delivered in an election year, to outline the programme of the new administration.
This time, we are again in an era of new beginnings. Indeed, this beginning marks a more radical change than any in the past three decades of democracy. It marks the beginning of an era in which the ANC is no longer the majority party and governs as part of a coalition.
The president will no doubt want to give some hope and inspiration to the nation, and it may be tempting to hark back to “Thuma Mina”. He should approach that with caution.
First, after six very difficult years for SA’s economy and its people nobody will fall for it again. The first Ramaphosa administration fell short of delivering on the high hopes that were raised by the end of Zuma and state-capture era. Ramaphosa’s second administration will have to work a lot harder to win people’s trust and to restore hope that it can turn around the economy and improve people’s lives.
A second reason to be wary of any glib calls to unite and “send me” is that this Ramaphosa government is very different from the first one. That needs to be acknowledged up front in Thursday’s speech. The president needs to say loud and clear, as he did after the election, that the people have spoken and the government has heard them.
The ANC often seems as if it does not really accept it has lost power and now depends on its partners to govern. If he wants to instil hope, the president would do well to highlight how good this could be for SA.
The government of national unity (GNU) brings fresh ideas and fresh talent into government; it has the potential to bring better oversight. It could help to change SA’s trajectory, lifting its economic growth rate and rebuilding the fabric of society to improve people’s lives. But this could happen only if the GNU parties can find a way to work together effectively, which means the ANC needs to start listening and stop throwing its weight around.
The president’s speech should, therefore, inject a good dose of realism while providing some reason for hope. And, crucially, if the ANC is serious about the GNU, Thursday’s speech should say less rather than more.
The GNU partners have agreed on a set of high-level policy principles. But there’s no possibility all the new ministers have had time to reflect on or agree on priorities in any detail. The two-day cabinet lekgotla was likely to have been more of a mass meeting of ministers and officials than a productive strategy session. It is appropriate that the new cabinet takes some time to review the programme of the old: new ministers need to have the space and support to set fresh priorities for their departments to deliver on. The laundry list typical of some past state of the nation addresses is not appropriate this time.
Thursday’s speech must make clear the realities the new government faces. The public finances are very constrained so there is little money for grand ambitions; tough choices must be made about which programmes are worth keeping. There is too little capacity and competence in the state; much work must be done to turn it around so that it can enable higher economic growth and deliver better services for all SA’s citizens, especially its poorest.
Good policy is possible only if the state is able to implement it. The president will be more convincing if he strikes a realistic note, at the same time as offering hope and confidence that the new government will work together to build a better SA.
Crucially, the GNU partners agree that economic growth is a priority. Thursday’s speech must make clear its commitment to growing the economy and staying the course on reforms. It must spell out its commitment to a more effective public sector that can deliver better services for citizens, and to enable a private sector that can thrive, invest and create jobs.
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