The dramatic decline of the ANC, to just 40% in the May 29 general elections, was an opportunity for a real opposition to emerge to foster accountability and make the political space competitive. Unfortunately, the collapse of the ANC also marked the end of opposition politics.
After forming the MK party, Jacob Zuma ran an insurgent elections campaign that cannibalised votes from the ANC, his erstwhile party, and Julius Malema’s EFF.
That the DA elected to join Cyril Ramaphosa’s government of national unity (GNU) opened the opportunity for fresh ideas albeit from splinters of the ANC.
For the most part of the past three decades, the DA ran a fairly decent parliamentary opposition. In the past decade, it tactically worked with the EFF on holding the ANC’s executive accountable.
Three such campaigns stand out: first, #paybackthemoney (for non-security features of Zuma’s Nkandla upgrades); the ultimate ouster of Zuma; and, trying — and failing — to make Ramaphosa account for the robbery and cover-up of the robbery at his Phala Phala game farm.
The Phala Phala matter is now as good as dead. As part of its participation in the GNU, the DA has pledged not to support a motion of no confidence in Ramaphosa in respect of Phala Phala. Which is a great pity. A more sensible approach would have been to keep an open mind should fresh, compelling evidence surface about wrongdoing.
With the DA now part of the cabinet, the important job of holding the executive to account lies with the MK (the official opposition), the EFF and the tiny, but scandal-free African Transformation Movement (ATM).
For the millions of disgruntled South Africans who were yearning for a new dawn of opposition politics, the past three weeks have been woefully disappointing.
Even more tantalising for the would-be opposition is that the ANC remains in denial that it lost the elections. Two months after the elections, in which it lost Gauteng, the Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, Luthuli House has no core narrative about what really happened on May 29 and, even more concerning, there does not appear to be a process to work out an answer to this pressing question.
For the millions of disgruntled South Africans who were yearning for a new dawn of opposition politics, the past three weeks have been woefully disappointing.
John Hlophe, the impeached Western Cape judge president who was airdropped to lead the MK in parliament, has proven unqualified for the role of opposition leader. Like most of his other inserted colleagues, he is teaching himself the job while doing it.
The consequences have been disastrous. His interventions, sorely lacking in substance, fact and evidence, are laughable. He appears in a parliament set-up in terms of a constitution he despises and plans to shred.
The EFF, which relied on theatrics to make its points in the fifth and sixth parliaments, has realised the limits of this strategy. It needs a new strategy that can convince its funders and South Africans that its leadership has graduated from kindergarten politics.
What happens now? The future looks depressing. An implosion is unfolding in the opposition ranks.
Zuma, who was expelled from the ANC this week, has divided his new party with his autocratic leadership style. Removing foot soldiers who risked it all for the 14% vote in favour of elites such as Hlophe and former Eskom and Transnet executives will cause resentment among the MK party believers.
Worse, except for its entertainment value, Zuma’s strategy — of setting up a new party “to save the ANC” — has never been clearer. It is hardly a message voters or funders can buy into.
His expulsion creates an inflection point: either he breaks free from the past or continues hankering after it. Both paths lead to one outcome: self-destruction. His legal troubles, which offer him campaign platforms, are unhelpful in building a parliamentary opposition party.
The EFF, on the other hand, is headed for more rocky times. Malema’s availability to stand for party president again later this year confirms that his is a one-man show. As in previous party conferences he is unlikely to be contested.
In the past month, damning evidence implicating him and his deputy, Floyd Shivambu, has emerged from an affidavit filed by Tshifhiwa Matodzi, the convicted former chair of VBS Mutual Bank. On the face of it, it is hard to see how the pair can escape prosecution.
Without the cult figures at their helm, both the EFF and MK have no credible next layer of leadership to take up the baton. Under the circumstances, only an active citizenry can hold the executive to account.
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