In just a few days, Americans will head to the polls to elect a new president and legislators. The presidential race is a contest between vice-president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
This newspaper will not be voting; nor is it in the business of endorsing a candidate or guiding its readers on who to vote for. Our readers are discerning enough to exercise their choice wisely.
However, this election is as important to Americans as it is to South Africans. The choice Americans make next Tuesday will have far-reaching implications for the global landscape over the next four years.
This is no ordinary election. Most polls suggest that it is too close to call.
If Harris, the Democratic candidate, makes it, she will be the first woman to occupy the Oval Office.
Harris entered the race late in the day, stepping in after Joe Biden, the incumbent, withdrew due to pressure from the Democrats’ funders and party members, who were increasingly concerned about his health and advanced age. These issues raised questions about his ability to beat Trump.
Still, Harris has mounted a credible campaign against Trump. She has also won endorsements from influential Democrats — like the Clintons and Obamas — and Republicans such as Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice-president.
While she may win the popular vote, she might come short of securing enough electoral college votes to beat Trump.
In the unlikely event that she wins, she will continue implementing much of Biden’s agenda with an emphasis on providing support for households battling the cost-of-living crisis.
On foreign policy, she would continue being an engaged superpower in global affairs. This would be good for the world.
Unlike in previous elections, the world and Americans have been denied an opportunity to thoroughly interrogate the policy proposals of both candidates. The two candidates only participated in one televised debate.
Trump’s campaign refused to participate in further debates. Earlier in the year, Trump did debate Biden. Even though Biden bothered to answer questions, he fared badly. It was, in the main, that disastrous performance that scuppered his campaign.
Lack of TV debates does not mean that the candidates’ messages have not reached voters. This year’s election has attracted lots of money.
A Trump presidency is looking increasingly probable. And the world should prepare for it.
Two months ago, a gunman tried, and failed, to kill Trump who was addressing a campaign rally. As is his nature, Trump thoroughly milked the incident for his benefit. It remains unclear exactly how much it bolstered his electoral fortunes.
He has shored up his campaign with alternative facts and lies, and unrealistic promises such as that he would end Russia’s war against Ukraine the minute he gets into the West Wing.
A Trump presidency will be bad for the world. As happened in his first term, which ended in 2020, he will likely retrench America’s role in global affairs. Among unfinished items on his agenda is pulling the US out of the World Health Organisation (WHO) and reducing US’s contributions to the UN and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato).
He will also continue his bromance with dictators like Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader.
His first term is remembered for the trade war he started against Chinese imports into the US.
Trump’s administration, which was isolationist in posture, scarcely cared about the African continent. This was a break from a tradition of Republican presidents like Ronald Reagan and George W Bush, who respectively helped end apartheid and poured billions into reducing Aids-related deaths.
For the rest of Africa, a Trump presidency would continue with the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). Agoa is a US legislation that grants thousands of Africa’s exports duty-free and quota-free access to the US market. SA has benefited from Agoa.
For SA, a Trump presidency would come at an inopportune time. A year ago, SA risked loss of Agoa benefits by failing to condemn Russia’s aggression. Last week’s statement by President Cyril Ramaphosa, describing Vladimir Putin as an ally, would not have been missed in Washington.
While SA cannot pick who becomes US president, it can choose how it relates to the US. Agoa is an important trade instrument, but it is outdated.
SA needs to negotiate a comprehensive trade and investment agreement with the US. This will require an investment in complex negotiations to get a mutually beneficial trade deal.
SA also needs to show it takes US-SA relations seriously. The last administration hardly showed such seriousness.
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