Julius Malema’s EFF is at a crossroads. The party’s shallow political expediency returned to haunt it in the most brutal way possible with the first decline in its support nationally in the May 29 election and the departure of senior leaders to former president Jacob Zuma’s MK party.
The EFF was formed and nurtured during former president Zuma’s presidency. In many ways Zuma created the need for the party. He hollowed out internal democracy in the ANC, dealing ruthlessly with dissent, which led to Malema and much of the EFF’s top leadership’s departure from the governing party.
The EFF’s inaugural election in 2014 catapulted it to the third largest party in a single election, no mean feat for a newly formed party, fashioned in the main around Malema’s persona and his declaration of war against Zuma.
It received more than 1.1-million votes in that election and grew by 713,000 votes in the 2019 election. To put it in perspective, it obtained more than half of the official opposition, the DA’s, share of the vote and again trumped the established IFP, UDM and COPE.
In 2024, the EFF retreated by 352,000 votes, losing the support it amassed in 2019 in the KwaZulu-Natal province in particular.
For Malema, this setback should be a harsh lesson in attempts to take political shortcuts.
Honing in on the EFF’s growth in 2014-19, it is clear that it was rooted in a protest vote from within the ANC. Malema capitalised on the large chunk of “radical economic transformation” (RET) backers or Zuma disciples who were disgruntled at the pivot in the ANC’s direction under President Cyril Ramaphosa. He effectively exploited internal ANC battles to grow the EFF. His party’s growth was most pronounced in strong RET provinces — the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal.
The EFF shot the lights out in its first local election in 2016, receiving 3.2-million votes (ward and proportional representation added together) or 8.3%, with a slight increase in 2021 to 10.5%.
Its stance on Zuma in the immediate aftermath of its formation was a principled one, but it catapulted to becoming a defender of the former president after his departure from office in 2018. Malema attacked the judiciary and even gave Zuma lieutenants such as Busisiwe Mkhwebane, Carl Niehaus and Mzwanele Manyi prime posts in parliament.
Instead of capitalising on the factors, which allowed it to obtain a stellar entry into the political terrain, Malema placed the politics of connivance above principle and has now been punished for it. It is not simply the electorate who rejected this stance, but Zuma himself is moving to liquidate the EFF. Malema this week once again declared Zuma as the EFF’s No 1 enemy — another head-spinning tactical pivot.
The departure of EFF deputy president Floyd Shivambu began the exodus, but it is likely to continue towards the 2026 local government election unless Malema dramatically shifts his party’s stance.
To be clear, the EFF is on the road to irrelevance — it became a significant political player due to sizeable numerical support and presence in councils and legislatures across the country. A further erosion of its support implies that it brings less heft to the coalition negotiating table in upcoming elections.
This has already set the EFF back: it was seen as a natural coalition partner for the ANC by insiders ahead of the May election, but politics is about numbers and the EFF simply did not bring the numbers to the table to push the ANC across the line nationally and crucially, in KwaZulu-Natal.
Voters are showing they are unimpressed by lofty outdated ideology, political intrigue, dishonesty, flip-flopping and disloyalty. They want services, economic opportunity, honesty and prosperity.
Unfortunately for the EFF, it remains locked in a strategic quagmire of its own making and focuses its attention on personality battles and internal ANC fights instead of proving its worth in delivering what voters want.
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