It is hard to accept that next week’s inauguration of Daniel Chapo as Mozambique’s new president will bring peace to the country after the disputed election results.
Even harder is to think that the region’s half-hearted efforts to broker peace will secure the stability needed to reignite the battered economy of Mozambique.
Last week, the Constitutional Court endorsed the disputed victory of Frelimo, the ruling party. This paves the way for Chapo, Frelimo’s candidate, to take over from Filipe Nyusi, the incumbent, next Wednesday.
Most election observers and opposition parties have questioned the results after widespread irregularities. As well as legal challenges, the opposition, led by Venâncio Mondlane, has staged protests for the last three months, resulting in the death of almost 300 people.
The first test comes today. Mondlane, who has been hiding in SA after the murder of his two lawyers in October, is due back in the country today. Not only has he called on his supporters to receive him at the airport, he is also organising his own inauguration next Wednesday.
If no durable solution is quickly found, Chapo will be in office, not in power; he will be a de facto president, not a de jure one. In the circumstances, he will be tempted to follow in his predecessor’s footsteps and unleash the security forces on protesters. This is a plaster.
Also, it is tempting for him to order the arrest of Mondlane whom the Frelimo administration has accused of stoking the violence and destruction of property. Again, this will be myopic and will turn Mondlane into a martyr.
What is required is a focused intervention by the region.
Mozambique has a political problem, not a law and order one. It is vitally important for all the role players to accept this characterisation. Practically, this means Mondlane cannot sustain his boycott of multiparty talks to deal with the crisis. Similarly, the Frelimo administration has no right to shoot at unarmed youths.
In theory, at least, all of Mozambique’s friends and neighbours need to respect the country’s internal electoral processes. However, state institutions, such as law courts, lack the requisite independence to make this possible.
Ideally, then, next week’s inauguration of Chapo should be paused to allow space and time for dialogue facilitated by the Southern African Development Community (Sadc).
In the meantime, though, Sadc should shore up its credentials as honest brokers. Rushed congratulations of Chapo, even before last week’s certification of the results, are unhelpful. They are reminiscent of the disdainful manner in which the region treated Morgan Tsvangirai, the late Zimbabwean opposition leader, during years of Robert Mugabe’s misrule.
Thanks to Frelimo’s economic mismanagement, Mozambique is too poor to afford a rerun of the election. But it is too costly to have prolonged protests either. The country needs political stability to engineer a quick economic rebound.
An inclusive power-sharing arrangement, say for two years before fresh elections, could be a sensible idea to break the impasse. However, for that to work would not be easy. The continent has plenty of examples. Recent ones include SA’s government of national unity, Kenya’s coalition government and, of course, Zimbabwe’s coalition with Tsvangirai as prime minister.
This is to not suggest it cannot be done. It can be done provided there is political maturity and adequate funding from the international community for new elections.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.