Global politics pose a stark risk for SA in 2025, with the world entering what Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer describes as a G-Zero phase — referring to a dangerous period characterised by a dearth of global leadership.
US president-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20 and US-China relations will continue to dominate the political agenda for SA and the rest of the world. Governments from Germany to Canada, South Korea to the Middle East are in turmoil and SA steps into this fray towards the year’s end.
SA will host the G20, placing the country at ground zero of global political theatre come November.
SA is not immune to the crisis of leadership affecting the world — the government of national unity (GNU), the governance arrangement pieced together by the ANC in the aftermath of the historic 2024 general election, presents the biggest opportunity for a political reset for SA, yet it is clear that actors from the two largest parties, the ANC in particular, are blind to this.
The GNU will take centre stage in the coming weeks, with the release of the seventh administration’s medium-term development plan, a plan to reshape SA in the grip of the highest-ever rate of unemployment, dismal economic growth, service delivery collapses across the country and a growing security crisis with close neighbour Mozambique in the midst of messy post-election violence.
Disagreement between the ANC and the DA over the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act as well as the National Health Insurance (NHI) will shape the trajectory of the GNU over the medium term. City Press over the weekend reported on a potential compromise mooted by senior ANC officials over the NHI, which if agreed to by the DA and other partners who oppose the legislation, could provide the GNU with a much-needed shot in the arm.
The DA is on record saying that the NHI is a red line for the party and its implementation in its current form could spell its departure from the governance arrangement.
While the ANC national executive committee reiterated its commitment to the GNU in the party’s January statement over the weekend, there is growing discomfort among anti Cyril Ramaphosa factions internally about the governance set-up — spearheaded by the ANC in Gauteng and alliance partners the SACP and the Congress of SA Trade Unions.
In the coming weeks, the ANC national executive committee will decide the fate of both its Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal structures. It will decide whether the two provinces will be disbanded or fortified to reverse the devastating electoral decline of the party in those provinces.
Disbanding provinces is a risky move, particularly at a time when internal coherence is crucial for the party. It could spark internal dissent, potentially weakening President Cyril Ramaphosa and his allies as the party heads to its midterm policy review, the national general council around midyear.
Former president Jacob Zuma and his MK party are set to continue their push to oust the ANC in the next general election, with the party beginning its preparation for the 2026 local government election.
Zuma wrote to the ANC last week warning that he would take the party to court to fight his expulsion, opening a fresh chapter in political theatre. His antics are designed to keep him and his party front of mind for an ANC-weary electorate. He also finally faces the trial on arms deal corruption charges in April, giving him another stage to rally support and portray himself as a martyr of political persecution.
Bar the battle for NHI and the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act, the outcomes of which are likely to affect its political standing and influence, the DA faces a relatively easy year unless it opts to bring forward its electoral conference scheduled for 2026.
The EFF will also be closely watched as it continues to bleed members and leaders after its poor electoral performance in 2024 and the departure of its deputy president Floyd Shivambu to Zuma’s MK party. Popular former EFF spokesperson Mbuyiseni Ndlozi resigned as an EFF MP this month after it emerged that he was aware Shivambu was preparing to leave, culminating in a clash with party leader Julius Malema.
A standout feature for 2025 is Ramaphosa’s political strength — he is not bogged down by re-election, is the last ANC leader of depth and stature globally and has never been in a stronger position both to shift the culture and trajectory of the ANC, SA and indeed the world. Will he finally show strong leadership or once again squander the opportunity?
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