BHP’s failed bid for Anglo American last year was fought as much behind the scenes as a war of words as it was as a public process. Is it too much to speculate that the trend continues, with recent leaked comments from BHP designed to tank the Anglo share price so as to allow for another attempt in future?
The Anglo share price fell 6% after unnamed sources “familiar with the situation” told the Financial Times that BHP’s interest in Anglo had cooled since it failed in its £38bn bid. It’s been a consistent theme from the Australian miner in recent months as Anglo’s share price has climbed while BHP’s has languished, making the economics of the deal look a lot less attractive than they were at the time BHP walked away in May, after three failed attempts at an all-share bid.
Since then, Anglo has forged ahead with the “self-help” restructuring it promised during the bid, selling its metallurgical coal assets for a good price and progressing rapidly with its plan to sell down and unbundle its 80% of Anglo American Platinum. Selling its 85% of De Beers will be more of a challenge, but that’s expected next year.
BHP might be waiting to buy what remains, particularly the rich Anglo copper assets it had its eye on all along. But not at these prices. Quietly deflating the “bid premium” the market still attached to Anglo is conceivably part of a long-term game by the Australian — despite its frequent public protestations that it doesn’t need Anglo.
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