For the past three years, Ukrainians have suffered untold misery after Russia’s invasion of their country in February 2022. With the support of Western military hardware, they have put up a decent defence of their homeland.
However, this past week — during the third anniversary of the war — things changed badly for Ukraine. The US, one of its backers, stopped short of formally withdrawing military aid.
After inviting Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, to the White House, US President Donald Trump went on to humiliate his guest in front of the world’s cameras. Together with his vice- president, JD Vance, Trump scolded Zelensky like a mischievous schoolboy and abruptly cut the meeting and asked his visitor to return when he is ready for peace talks.
In the chaotic meeting-press conference, he bluntly told Zelensky that he did not have any cards to play and was risking World War 3. Worse, Friday’s turn of events mean that Trump never shared with Zelensky what he had discussed — and agreed — with Russia President Vladimir Putin.
Consequently, two expected outcomes of the encounter failed to materialise. Zelensky left without receiving guarantees of US backing and security guarantees he had hoped for. And Trump didn’t clinch his deal to extract Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.
In the run-up to the meeting at the Oval Office, signs that Trump would leave the Ukrainians to their own devices were there for all to see. First, soon after his inauguration, he warmed up to Putin. His first detailed interaction with foreign leaders was with the Russian president. He appears to have struck a deal with Putin already. Roughly, the US would assuage Russia’s concerns with its presence in Ukraine and Kyiv would not be allowed to join Nato.
By all accounts, this is a one-sided deal. It hardly benefits Ukraine. At best, it will, if signed, guarantee uneasy peace for the duration of Trump’s term as president. What happens when he leaves the White House? There is no guarantee that Putin, a de facto Russian emperor, would not be tempted to restart the war after Trump’s departure.
For Trump, this deal would distinguish him from Joe Biden, his predecessor, who has pumped billions in propping up Zelensky over the past three years.
Zelensky did the unthinkable on Friday. He stood up to Trump, the world’s bully. This isn’t the first time he went where angels fear to tread. During Trump’s first term, he refused to be strong-armed by America’s 45th president into investigating the Biden family.
Sometimes, standing up to a bully by punching them back is all it takes to stop the bullying. This defiance of a bully is not without consequences. Withdrawal of US support for Ukraine is the minimum price Ukraine will pay. Still, this wouldn’t amount to a world war. Last week Trump also instructed his diplomats to vote against Ukraine at the UN, a body he has no respect for.
Withdrawal of US support for Ukraine is the minimum price Ukraine will pay.
A World War 3 scenario would include the US siding with Russia, militarily, in the war against Ukraine and forcefully extracting the minerals it was negotiating for. Taken to its logical conclusion, the US would be fighting alongside North Korea, which has sent troops to support Russia against Ukraine.
Enter the Europeans and the British. Unlike Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer were courteous to their combative host. But they remain resolute that Putin needs to be forced to the negotiating table. This, in their view, could happen only if the balance of power is swung towards Ukraine’s favour. One of the options is to back up military hardware aid with boots on the ground. EU leaders meet this week to weigh up their options.
While Zelensky may not enjoy US support any more, his mission remains well supported in most parts of the world. It is unlikely that the Europeans and British would entertain a military confrontation with the US in Ukraine. This means that they will continue engaging their erratic partner in the White House.
After years of its lukewarm support for Ukraine, SA last week appeared to have developed a foreign policy spine. Pretoria invited Zelensky to undertake a state visit to SA during the course of the year. This is commendable. A long-lasting peace deal cannot be one-sided. It should address the concerns of both parties in the war.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.