In coming days, Volodymyr Zelensky, the embattled president of Ukraine, will make a historic visit to SA at the invitation of President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The trip, due on April 10, will come at a difficult time for Zelensky. After his humiliating visit to the Oval Office, during which he was sent packing by Donald Trump and his acolytes, he is in a tricky position.
Russia is militarily strong and feeling emboldened by Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th US president.
Since January 20, the day of his inauguration, Trump has spent more time on the phone with Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, than with Zelensky and America’s Western allies, who are worrying about the sorts of deals he is cutting with Russia’s strongman.
Crucially, unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, Trump has become equivocal about continued US military hardware and financial support for Ukraine. He has stopped short of calling Zelensky a dictator for not holding an election during the war.
This has played straight into Putin’s hands. The Kremlin, which has escalated attacks on Ukraine last week, is now increasingly talking about an interim administration in Ukraine to negotiate an end to the three-year war.
It’s unclear whether Trump has orchestrated this new formulation.
However, what is clear is that Europeans and the British are not on the same page as Trump. Last week leaders of Germany, France and Britain convened in Paris as the “coalition of the willing” and pledged continued support for Ukraine. To put a fine point to it, they invited Zelensky and treated him with respect.
Differences remain. These revolve around two issues: first, troops on the ground and when exactly; and second, pressure through sanctions — fresh and old — should continue against Russia so that Putin commits in earnest to peace.
There are other known unknowns about what Europeans and Americans are negotiating with Putin. At the core of this batch of issues is what security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine would look like.
Ukraine, under Zelensky, would have preferred a hybrid guarantee that includes a Western base in Ukraine and a timetable of joining Nato. The latter is a no-no for Putin, while the former is palatable to him under Trump’s America.
Europeans don’t see Russia-Ukraine talks without Zelensky.
Then enters SA. A year ago, Pretoria marshalled several African leaders in what was called the Africa peace initiative to Moscow and Kyiv. The June 2024 plan, part of an elaborate attempt by Pretoria to appear nonaligned, lost steam due to the American election, the Gaza bombardment and Trump’s return to the White House.
Zelensky is due to undertake a working visit to SA, not necessarily to the constituent parts of the Africa peace initiative.
Pretoria, an ally of the Kremlin, has to be commended for seizing the initiative in inviting Zelensky.
This newspaper believes there can be no peace without the Ukraine president.
Unlike Zelensky, Putin got himself re-elected during the war, but not without controversy. Among others, Alexei Navalny, his arch-critic, died in prison, marring his victory. This was after a massive fallout with Sergei Prigozhin, then head of the mercenary Wagner Group, which was fighting alongside Russian forces.
There is no credible sign that Zelensky has lost popular support from his small but brave country. This is significant and must be part of the solution. This needs recognition by all actors in the conflict.
Zelensky is probably tired. His presidency is unlikely to have been what he had hoped for, at least not for an erstwhile comedian. But he hasn’t done too badly.
He stood up to Putin and, lately, to Trump. He must have known the consequences of both actions.
Trump has yet to forgive him for refusing to investigate the Biden family during his term as the 45th president of the US. This mainly informs the White House’s outlook of the war, famously captured in Trump’s “you don’t have cards” refrain during the showdown.
As was made clear in SignalGate, the leaked war plans against the Houthi insurgents, Trump continues to treat European allies as freeloaders. He is unlikely to regain respect soon.
Ramaphosa, who has enough domestic problems, should use his time with Zelensky wisely.
We urge him to strengthen, not weaken, Zelensky’s hand in the talks with Putin. Both Putin and Zelensky find themselves in a corner, and need help out of it. Ramaphosa needs this win as does Zelensky and Putin.
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