By all accounts, the Southern African military mission to the war-torn Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been a spectacular failure for the Southern African Development Community (Sadc).
The mission’s withdrawal, which begins this month, ends years of losses and heartache for the families of more than 3,000 Sadc soldiers in the eastern part of the DRC.
This weekend, the SA National Defence Force (SANDF), which contributed more than 2,000 troops over the years, sought to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat. The military higher-ups tried to portray the withdrawal of the mission — ordered by Sadc and East African Community (EAC) leaders a month ago — as the “next chapter” in efforts to broker peace in the minerals-rich country.
Millions of ordinary Congolese have lost their lives and livelihoods, and the Sadc mission has suffered serious casualties at the hands of M23 rebels backed by Rwanda’s army. A month ago, SA took delivery of the bodies of 14 of its soldiers who were slaughtered in the fight.
The past few years have been marked by accusations and counteraccusations, and hand-wringing inaction by the world community.
Apart from his people, whom he failed, Felix Tshisekedi, DRC’s beleaguered president, has been the biggest loser in the conflict. He has lost huge swathes of the eastern DRC to the rebels and also lost face. After years of refusing to negotiate directly with the rebels, he has been forced to confront the inevitable: pressure to negotiate with them.
His stance has been that he wants to negotiate with Kigali instead of its proxies. If the war had continued on its current path, the rebels looked set to shoot their way into Kinshasa.
Sadc — SA, Malawi and Tanzania — have lost lives and face in the war.
As the scales swung in favour of the rebels, Sadc tried, unsuccessfully, to redefine the purpose of the mission. First, it was peace-enforcement, and then it became peacekeeping. Either way, the outcome was the loss of life, with the DRC official forces offering no resistance.
Worse, the Sadc force was found militarily wanting; in both numbers and technology. Many of the casualties were inflicted through air power.
The African Union (AU), which has just elected new leadership, and the international community have failed the ordinary Congolese. The AU, which is a toothless continental body, has muddled its way through the conflict. It abdicated its responsibilities to the regional economic communities such as Sadc and EAC, and it badly misread the situation.
Unlike other conflicts on the continent, the DRC’s economic fortunes raise the stakes somewhat. It also has more uninvited guests than others. When the Sadc mission arrived with no political nous, it got sucked into the region’s factional dynamics. This immediately ensured its mission wouldn’t succeed.
The West, which is invested in the Great Lakes region, has not helped much. For years, it allowed the conflict to rage on while its interests were unaffected. It was only two months ago that it changed course.
Two months ago, France, the UK, Germany and the US cut off aid and imposed sanctions on Kigali for its role in perpetrating the conflict. This forced Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s leader, to moderate his bellicose rhetoric.
The change of AU’s executive leadership also accelerated other changes. First, the military mission was discontinued; second, Tshisekedi and rebels were forced to negotiate; and third, a former heads of state facilitation team was chosen to mediate the talks.
The latter is by far the best possible solution in as many years. However, since the appointment of these former leaders, including Kgalema Motlanthe, little has happened. Momentum is required.
Two lessons stand out from this debacle: first, it’s vitally important to understand the intra-country and regional dynamics before proposing solutions; and second, there is no replacement for old-fashioned democracy.
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