Friday’s summit between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has been dogged by controversy. But it may yet be the beginning of the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The biggest controversy has been caused by Trump’s rushed arrangement of the summit. In typical Trump style, he called Putin, who invaded Ukraine three years ago, to a summit in Alaska. He did so without consulting America’s allies and Ukraine.
Understandably, Europe and the UK, which have supported Ukraine, were irritated by Trump’s unilateral action. Beyond irritation the US’s allies are worried that Trump may cut a pro-Russia deal with Putin.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is concerned that Trump will be played by Putin tomorrow.
On Wednesday, European leaders met Zelensky to assure him of their support and to emphasise that they wouldn’t accept a deal that is struck without Ukraine. Grudgingly, Trump and his deputy, JD Vance, joined the meeting virtually.
Ideally, Trump, who claims to hate wars, ought to have invited both Zelensky and Putin to Alaska for talks about how to end the war. Both Zelensky and Putin have the requisite mandates to end the war. This is despite Zelensky’s claim that he has no authority to swap land.
That it is not a three-way summit shouldn’t diminish the significance of the opportunity Friday presents, nor should Trump’s chaotic negotiating style.
Friday’s summit presents a rare opportunity for ending the war.
Trump’s position on Ukraine has been as confusing as his stance on Putin. He has vowed to stop funding Ukraine’s war effort. Last month, however, he supplied Ukraine with new weapons. Similarly, he has claimed to have lost patience with Putin, only to invite him to a summit weeks later.
Friday’s summit presents a rare opportunity for ending the war. Already, elements of a deal are evident. For Putin, whose troops and air strikes have made significant advances in the past few days, his biggest win has been that both Europe and Ukraine have stopped talking about Kyiv joining Nato — the Western military alliance.
This was one of Putin’s reasons for invading Ukraine.
A Nato membership for Ukraine would address its security concerns. An attack on a Nato member, such as Ukraine, would be deemed an attack on Nato. Without Nato’s membership, Ukraine would require security guarantees from the West.
This would readily be forthcoming from Europe. But there are doubts that Trump’s administration would easily commit to this.
The intensification of attacks on Ukraine this week suggests that Putin wants to shore up his negotiating position. In other words, by the time the hostilities are ceased, he would lay claim to captured territories.
The war has been costly and awful to both sides. Like Russia, Ukraine has lost thousands of lives due to the war. Ukraine would require billions to rebuild damaged infrastructure.
The sanctions by the West are damaging. Last week, Trump announced new tariffs on India for continuing to buy Russian oil.
If the war doesn’t end, Russia stands to lose billions of dollars of its frozen assets. In what would be an ultimate act of humiliation, these may be handed over to Ukraine.
Friday offers an opportunity for Trump to listen to Putin — what his grievances are and what it would take for him to end the war. Putin, too, has a chance to end his isolation and the sanctions against his country.
Trump shouldn’t aim for a deal on Friday; rather, he should use the meeting to inform himself and to gauge the readiness for serious talks to end the war.
Threats on social media don’t end wars. In-person meetings end wars. Friday’s meeting is the beginning of that process.
After the meeting, Trump should loop in both Ukraine and its allies.
It’s hard to think that the war can easily be stopped without a pause button. On Friday, Trump will do well in agreeing the makings of a ceasefire with Putin.
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