Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be succeeding in his ambition to rout Hamas in Gaza. But the ground offensive on Gaza City launched yesterday, and recent air strikes on Qatar, are losing him vital friends among Arab states and around the world.
On Tuesday, a three-person commission appointed by the UN Human Rights Council concluded that Israel’s post-October 7 2023 military invasion of Gaza, with thousands of civilian casualties, qualifies as genocide under the 1948 UN Convention.
Pro-Palestinian states such as SA, which has already laid war crimes charges against Israel with the International Court of Justice, will be emboldened and demand that more action be taken against Israel, including its diplomatic isolation.
On September 9, the IDF launched 10 air strikes in Qatar, targeting senior Hamas political leaders. A few of those leaders are known to have been killed. It remains unclear whether the casualties included negotiators participating in US-led ceasefire talks intended to bring an end to the conflict in Gaza.
This was part of Netanyahu’s goal of destroying Hamas “wherever they are”, extending kinetic pressure beyond Gaza to states perceived as hosting or enabling Hamas’s political and proxy networks.
The expansion of operations in Iran, Lebanon and Syria amplifies the risk of strategic blowback while complicating allied calculations about how to support Israel without endorsing unilateral strikes on third-party states.
However, the most recent missile strikes on Qatar have raised questions in diplomatic circles over whether Netanyahu has gone too far in his war against Hamas, and if he is really serious about the ceasefire talks.
Qatar is hardly a paragon of virtue. Its human rights record has attracted harsh rebuke from rights organisations around the world, so much so that in the past few years it has sought to burnish its reputation, including a controversial and costly hosting of the 2022 Fifa World Cup.
Beyond vast expenditure on glitzy sports tournaments, the Qatari regime has tried to take the spotlight off its human rights record by positioning itself as a global peacemaker, including mediating in the Sudanese conflict and initiatives to end the conflict in Gaza.
It has also curried favour with the Trump administration by buying American arms and pledging to invest billions of dollars in the US. Last week’s Israeli air strikes may have helped the Qatari regime by shifting the focus sharply back to Netanyahu.
His claims that the army’s assault on Gaza City and missile attacks on Arab states are essential to secure the state of Israel are becoming increasingly difficult to justify. The attack on Qatar raises the question whether Netanyahu has gone rogue and is actively sabotaging peace efforts.
Qatar has hosted the more moderate elements within the Hamas leadership, ostensibly to facilitate peace talks, and the attack on targets within the emirate occurred when Hamas negotiators were under pressure to accept the latest iteration of the US ceasefire proposal.
On Monday, Gulf states met to discuss the attack. Their statement condemned the assault, but stopped short of a call for retaliation or the anti-Israel Arab military alliance Tehran has been pushing for.
Sensibly, Doha is still committed to the ceasefire talks initiative. This should be applauded and supported by the international community, whose responsibility is clear. It must continue to promote coexistence between Israel and Palestine.
As the October 7 massacre illustrated, Israel’s security concerns are legitimate. But Netanyahu’s “wherever they are” doctrine needs to be strictly defined. His allies, especially those with leverage over him, such as the US, must draw a line in the sand on what constitutes credible security guarantees for Israel, and what action he can take to make them a reality.
A clearer picture of Netanyahu’s strategy and endgame might help counter Hamas’s efforts to mobilise Arab states and world opinion in general against the state of Israel and its people.
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