The Wagner Group’s activities in Africa should not be underestimated by SA. Created during the Ukrainian conflict to give the Russian Federation plausible deniability, it supplies experienced military personnel at discount prices. Employees saw action in Syria and more recently south of Libya’s Tripoli, where they are supporting Gen Khalifa Haftar.
They are present in northern Mozambique working with government forces to put down a jihadist insurrection and recently lost seven members in an ambush. The group has offices in 20 African countries including Eswatini, Lesotho and Botswana.
The Group is just part of a co-ordinated drive by the Russian Federation to gain influence and business in Africa as showcased recently at the Sochi African Summit. Driven by the sanctions closure of western markets and the US's withdrawal, various Russian entities are offering “security” ranging from electoral assistance via social and traditional media as in Madagascar, to personal protection, military equipment and experience including front line troops. Infrastructural projects such as nuclear power stations and mining development are also on offer together with innovative payment plans.
While President Cyril Ramaphosa did attend the Sochi Summit, he is nowhere near as close to Russian President Vladimir Putin as his predecessor was. Putin thought the R1-trillion nuclear power station deal was in the bag, which is why he continues to raise its effective cancellation at every meeting with Ramaphosa. It was a serious blow to his nuclear ambitions in Africa.
How difficult would it be for entities such as the Wagner Group to sow a little destabilisation in SA either to encourage Ramaphosa to change his mind, or, more seriously, to effect regime change?
This is exactly the sort of eventuality that SA’s State Security Agency was established to prevent. But if the number of its senior operatives who have been trained in Russia is anything to go by, how sure can we be that it will take effective action or even inform the president? Perhaps there is more behind our current crises than meets the eye?
James Cunningham, Camps Bay
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