Another turbulent political year is anticipated for SA in 2017 as the governing ANC prepares to hold its 54th national conference, which will draw the curtain on President Jacob Zuma’s two terms as party president and elect his successor.
The year 2016 closed with the first real sign of a rebellion against Zuma and his acolytes within the national executive committee (NEC) — the ANC’s highest decision-making body between conferences — when a strident call was made for his removal as the president of the country.
Zuma survived, but the development signalled the coming of a bitter battle for control of the party as it heads to its next elective conference, scheduled for December 16-20.
The 2017 political calendar is set to kick off with a special ANC NEC meeting on Wednesday at which it will discuss and formulate its annual anniversary statement to be delivered by Zuma at Orlando Stadium in Soweto on Sunday.
The January 8 statement sets the tone for the year, and this one is likely to focus on unity as the ANC braces for its internal election, amid fears of another split.
The party’s year-end message indicated it would buck against "accidental leadership" as it moves towards its elective conference.
Contenders for the post include deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and former AU commission chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who is said to be the preferred candidate of Zuma loyalists in the party.
The elective battle has been fashioned as one between rent-seekers and those wanting to capture the state for personal benefit, and those seeking to restore the traditional values of the party and rescue its declining electoral performance.
It suffered a massive electoral setback in 2016 when it lost three major cities in the local government elections.
Party veterans have intervened to tackle the morass that has engulfed the ANC during the Zuma years, with a consultative conference set to form part of its mid-year policy gathering.
The ANC will be closely watched when it meets from June 30 to July 5 for its policy conference, a precursor to the national conference, where its strategy and agenda for the next five years will also be decided.
On the policy front, the party’s drop in support in the 2016 elections is likely to shape its outlook — it will be closely watched for populist policy shifts as a result of its electoral performance.
In his end-of-year message, Zuma said a programme for economic transformation had to intensify in the coming year "to change the commanding heights of the economy, and increase the participation of black people as owners and managers".
In its end-of-year statement, the ANC emphasised the need to speed up the implementation of the National Development Plan (NDP) in 2017 — the country’s blueprint for development until 2030, adopted at its last conference — to boost economic growth and create jobs.
Zuma’s message was silent on the implementation of the NDP.
The ANC’s alliance with the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) is also set to face a watershed year in 2017, as the left mulls contesting future elections.
The SACP, at its strategy meeting for the year ahead in December, confirmed it would discuss contesting elections at its 14th national congress in July.
This discussion would include the impact of a decision to contest for state power on the alliance and whether the party would remain part of it.
The meeting comes as the SACP faces an onslaught from sections of the ANC, with the fight resulting in assassinations in parts of KwaZulu-Natal.
The DA, now governing Tshwane, Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth, will face a keen test this year as it seeks to pass its budgets for the first time since taking over from the ANC, mainly through coalitions.
A noncommittal alliance with the EFF helped the DA wrest power from the ANC in Tshwane and Johannesburg, but the fledgling party has not agreed to vote with the DA on crucial matters such as the budget.
It is crucial that the DA obtain buy-in on the budgets for the metros. Should it fail to do so, it risks being placed under administration by the provincial government.
The courts will once again play a key role in the unfolding political machinations in the ANC and the country in 2017.
A number of key cases will be decided in the first half of the year, including whether Zuma can appeal against the judgment setting aside the decision to drop the 783 charges of fraud, racketeering and corruption against him.
Other notable cases include the application by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan for an order confirming that he cannot intervene in the closure by the country’s banks of the Gupta-owned Oakbay bank accounts.
Last month the four major banks filed affidavits in support of Gordhan’s application, with Standard Bank taking it a step further by asking the court to order that no member of the executive, not limited to the finance minister, has the authority to intervene between the banks and its clients.
Gordhan endured a tough year in 2016, facing charges linked to his tenure as the South African Revenue Service (SARS) commissioner, which were subsequently dropped cementing views that the investigation into him was politically motivated.
His stay as finance minister is set to remain tenuous as Zuma’s term as party president draws to a close.
The role of the security cluster in the battle for control of the ANC is also set to come into sharp focus as the Hawks and the National Prosecuting Authority are increasingly perceived to be used by powerful political players to attack their opponents.
Former public protector Thuli Madonsela’s report on state capture will also come into focus as Zuma has filed papers to legally challenge her recommendations for a judicial commission of inquiry into state capture with the presiding judge to be selected by Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng.
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