The election in the Western Cape is set to be a thriller.
The DA, which had become used to achieving comfortable majorities, is under threat and sits just on the 50% mark according to the party’s internal polling. After a 63,56% majority in 2016 and 59,38% in 2014 this is a frightening development for it. And campaigners are turning up the volume in the last push to the election.
The plunge in support is accounted for mostly by its own bad behaviour. The DA has spent the past two years at war with itself, eventually pushing out the executive mayor of Cape Town Patricia de Lille in a dirty and unprincipled manner. Its top leaders have been at odds on key policy issues, especially those related to race.
Provincial results for the 2014 general elections in the Western Cape by individual ward
Factions of the DA have disagreed — and seemed to mostly win —a fight with leader Mmusi Maimane over the value of race-based policies such as affirmative action and “representativity” at a leadership level. Maimane has been made to look like a black stooge with powerful white bosses who pull the strings.
The consequence of this was to alienate its normally dependable support base among whites and coloureds. De Lille’s new party Good, formed four months ago, is likely to capture 3% of the vote, which will come off the DA. Smaller parties — such as the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) — are being viewed with greater interest. In the last poll by the Institute for Race Relations (IRR), whose polling methodology is identical to the DA’s in-house poll, the ACDP is likely to capture 7% of the vote. This is an incredible feat as in 2016, it scored only 1%.
Together these two small parties will have taken 10% off the DA, converting what was a comfortable majority to one that looks wafer thin. To turn this around the DA needs to get the white, and even more importantly the coloured electorate, to turn out in numbers. Its core message taps into their greatest fear about the future — the EFF — urging them to vote DA to keep the ANC and the EFF out.
Adding to the DA’s troubles is the fact that the poor, some of whom may have had high hopes that life would change under a DA government, are disillusioned. Delivery improvements, like in Gauteng, have been incremental. The social backlogs are enormous; the economy is weak and life has not demonstrably improved. The general mood in the coloured and African townships is bleak.
The ANC looks set to continue its decline in the Western Cape. Judging from the polls it will be lucky to get 30%, which would be lower than the 32,89% it cracked in 2014. Since then the EFF has also strengthened in the province and disillusioned ANC voters who before gave the DA a try, might consider the EFF this time. Though small — the IRR poll puts EFF support at 6.8% — the loss of even a small share of the vote counts a great deal for both the ANC and the DA in this context.
The ANC’s campaign has been weak and contradictory. Even though the campaign is being run by former Western Cape premier Ebrahim Rasool, ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule has spent a disproportionate amount of time in the province alongside provincial secretary Faiez Jacobs, with whom he is building a new alliance.
The party’s core message that new boss Cyril Ramaphosa will end corruption and turn the ANC around has been squarely undermined by Magashule’s frequent presence. It has been a blessing for the DA in such a tight race.
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