This is going to be an important year for SA politics, with the two biggest parties headed to critical conferences that could once again lead to significant changes in the political landscape.
With the 2021 local government elections drawing near, the stakes could not be higher for the governing ANC and the official opposition, the DA. Both parties have a lot to prove to the electorate, but will have to deal with their own internal politics first before campaigning starts.
The first big political event of the year will be the ANC’s annual January 8 statement, which will set the policy line for the governing party for the year. It will be President Cyril Ramaphosa’s third as president of the ANC. In June 2020, at its national general council (NGC) meeting, the ANC will also have its midterm review of the implementation of policy decisions taken at the 2017 conference in Nasrec, where Ramaphosa was elected. While the NGC is not an elective conference and can therefore not remove party leaders, it can be used as a testing ground of the strength of ANC leaders, such as Ramaphosa and his deputy, David Mabuza.
Political analyst Prof Somadoda Fikeni referred back to the ANC’s NGC in 2005, when the open rebellion against then party leader Thabo Mbeki was started by those aligned to then deputy president Jacob Zuma.
“The NGC has become a space in which you test the strength of the leader of the party to see if he still holds a grip,” Fikeni said, adding that this is particularly important given the razor-thin margin with which Ramaphosa won the ANC presidency.
Fikeni said with the commission of inquiry into state capture reaching its apex this year, those feeling its pinch might openly rebel at the NGC. The official timeline for the commission, chaired by deputy chief justice Raymond Zondo is set to run out at the end of February 2020, but Zondo has already indicated the commission would approach the courts for another extension, in the hope of having until December to finish its work.
The ANC’s implementation of its resolutions to amend the constitution to allow for expropriation without compensation, as well as a resolution to nationalise the Reserve Bank, can be expected to be a focus of the 3,000 delegates who will attend the NGC. The approach taken for state-owned entities (SOEs) can also be expected to be a focal point.
Independent elections analyst Dawie Scholtz said for the ANC, the year will be about turning the tide against poor governance and a failing economy. If it were successful in tackling these, it could help the party when voters go to the polls in 2021. The ANC would also have to implement the structural reforms Ramaphosa has promised, he said.
For the DA, the first major focus will be on its policy conference, which is set to take place in April 2020, after which the party will go to an early congress in May. The policy conference goes to the heart of the struggle for the soul of the DA and will set the tone for what the party stands for when it elects its new leader after Mmusi Maimane dramatically resigned in October last year. John Steenhuisen is the DA’s interim leader but hopes to lead the party permanently following the congress.
Scholtz said the DA needs to develop a clear strategy and message between now and 2021, which should not only focus on governance and economics, but also on those policies that will connect with the voters it lost during the bruising 2019 general elections, in which the party shed support for the first time.
The EFF, SA’s third-largest party, will also go into the new year with an almost entirely new leadership, barring leader Julius Malema and his deputy, Floyd Shivambu. How this shapes the party ahead of the local government elections will be important, given the kingmaker role the EFF played after the elections in 2016.
Another critical part of the year will happen in parliament. One of the key issues will be the finalisation of the draft land expropriation amendment bill, which was published late in December for public comment. Parliament’s justice committee will also have to consider the DA’s request to have public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane removed from office. The various adverse judgments against her are expected to be critical ammunition in the fight to have her removed. Mkhwebane has been accused of being part of the so-called fightback campaign against Ramaphosa, which is seen as wanting to stifle the cleanup of the state. She disputes this.
While this all takes place, the criminal justice system, through most notably the work of the National Prosecuting Authority’s new investigating directorate, is set to continue grinding ahead. Arrests began to take place in late 2019, with ANC MP Bongani Bongo facing corruption charges, and in a separate case, former Eskom executives being charged with fraud, among other charges.
With more of this expected, 2020 is expected to be a bumpy year for politics.
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