Is President Cyril Ramaphosa now in control of the ANC and government?
Recent events suggest Ramaphosa, who was meant to be the president to save SA when he took over the highest office in the land in 2018 after the disastrous years of the Jacob Zuma presidency, is now in the ascendancy. He is at last beginning to provide much needed leadership, a prerequisite to boost confidence in the country’s economic direction, amid the uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Earlier in June, Ramaphosa showed boldness and decisiveness — key leadership traits his critics have accused him of lacking in uncertain times such as those SA now faces.
First, amid the crippling energy crisis that threatens economic recovery he exceeded expectations and boosted confidence in the economy by effectively overruling mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe on the threshold for companies to produce their own electricity without a licence. The threshold, Ramaphosa announced, would be adjusted to 100MW up from the 10MW which Mantashe was doggedly pushing for. Business organisations and large users of electricity, including mines, were lobbying for the licensing threshold to be raised to at least 50MW.
Second, a day after opening the electricity generation floodgates, it was announced that the grounded SAA, which has been one of the biggest drains on the fiscus for decades, would effectively be privatised. Takatso, a consortium made up of Harith General Partners, which manages two private equity infrastructure funds, and Global Aviation, an airline leasing company, are set to take over the majority stake at the national carrier as soon as all due diligence processes have been concluded.
Third, on Tuesday Ramaphosa announced the unbundling of the state-owned freight, transport and logistics company Transnet meant to boost the function of SA’s ports, in a move that could boost the economy and create more jobs.
Traditionally, trade union federation Cosatu, ANC’s key alliance partner that backed Ramaphosa to succeed Zuma, has vehemently opposed any kind of privatisation. The union has said it was not consulted before the sale agreement was announced.
Party insiders say the decision to offload the majority stake in SAA is also opposed by some senior national executive committee (NEC) members and Ramaphosa’s critics are set to capitalise on it, potentially weakening the president and his prospects for re-election. They also point to the “unpopular” decision to cut the runaway public sector wage bill, which has put the Ramaphosa administration at odds with unions.
Ramaphosa’s position, however, has been strengthened by the demise of some of his opponents within the party. Party secretary-general and chief protagonist of the anti-Ramaphosa faction Ace Magashule has been suspended, though he has vowed not to go down without a fight and has approached the courts to challenge his suspension. The matter is scheduled to be heard on Thursday and Friday. The Zuma-aligned Umkhonto we Sizwe Military Veterans Association (MKMVA), has effectively been neutralised though the organisation is also fighting moves to disband it, as the ANC pushes to unite the different warring factions of veterans of the former liberation army.
Furthermore, the North West and the pro-Magashule Free State, two provinces known to be anti-Ramaphosa, are in disarray with provincial executive committee’s there disbanded amid factional battles and court challenges.
On the face of it, Ramaphosa is in a stronger position from when he took over from Zuma. But he is still far from being in full control of the party still plagued by internal ructions and divisions.
Kwandiwe Kondlo, a political analyst and professor at the University of Johannesburg department of politics and international relations believes that internal contradictions in the party will get worse and the ANC on its own could prepare grounds for its defeat at national polls likely by a coalition of opposition parties.
“One can’t say Ramaphosa is firmly in control of the party. The party has degenerated — it is disorderly — that’s the reality and [Ramaphosa] is trying to exert authority and create order. It’s the worst time in the history of the ANC,” Kondlo says.
He says, however, Ramaphosa is in a strong position to retain the presidency, in part because there is no other viable candidate, and he has support of key sectors of the ANC such as the veteran’s league, women’s league and most of provinces and regions.
“Most ANC supporters know they could lose if they push him out abruptly, especially at this stage. The forces opposed to [Ramaphosa] will definitely put up a strong fight at the next ANC [elective] conference [in 2022] and again his skill to negotiate with moderate elements from his opponents is likely to get him another slender victory.”
Political analyst Daniel Silke says Ramaphosa is certainly in a stronger position from a factional or political perspective now than when he came to power.
“He has indeed consolidated his hold on the party as his arch-enemies have effectively neutralised themselves via their alleged involvement in acts of malfeasance. This is a fortunate position for Ramaphosa as it’s the courts or law that have been able to disarm his opponents rather than normal internal party political manoeuvring.”
Silke says the ongoing corruption scandals, that seemingly have evaded Ramaphosa, have made him the figurehead of ethical leadership within the ANC and he seems — at least for the moment — to be made of Teflon.
“While there are no guarantees in politics and the tide can turn should the vaccination campaign fail to deliver, he is the most viable candidate for re-election,” Silke says.
The main caveat now is how the Covid-19 vaccination drive, which has so far been disastrous, unfolds and the local government elections in which Ramaphosa must show electoral growth over the damaging 2016 results. Further loses at municipal level mean job losses for ANC cadres, which will hurt Ramaphosa’s prospects.
In the end, a lot will hinge on how Ramaphosa navigates the Covid-19 crisis and on keeping the ANC ahead at the upcoming local government polls.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.