As the dust settles on one of the most unpredictable elections democratic SA has witnessed, the focus shifts to the formation of governments across the country’s 257 municipalities and, critically, its eight metropolitan cities.
Coalition talks are set to kick off in earnest as results begin to paint the picture of which party won the hearts and minds of South Africans to ensure outright control of municipalities or which party will be in pole position to form a government in the many hung councils that are expected.
For the ANC, usually bullish about its prospects and unwilling to entertain coalition talk ahead of the polls, this election has been an education. The ANC has been harshly taught it cannot continue its self-indulgent dithering on key issues that affect the economy and every facet of SA life, such as energy.
Its self-absorbed, rent-seeking and tempestuous approach to energy policy over the past decade-and-half has come full circle, with power problems emerging as its biggest opposition in this election. Rolling blackouts became the awkward precursor to a key poll.
The ANC’s selection of councillor candidates and the running of municipalities as if they were offshoots of Luthuli House also hit hard. The result may well be that the party fails to finish on top in key metros such as Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay. Other key risk areas include eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal and Mangaung in the Free State. The bloodbath is unlikely to be confined to metros. Councils such as Maluti-a-Phofung and Setsoto Local Municipality, Ficksburg, are also at risk.
In 2016 — SA’s coalition baptism by fire with more councils and metros than ever ending up without a clear victor — the ANC was caught by surprise. It was wholly unprepared and in the aftermath of the polls and coalition talks that followed, it was outfoxed by the parties it negotiated with and left in the dust.
The DA swept into power in three of the eight metros.
While those power-sharing deals mostly fell apart, delivering Johannesburg back to the ANC, their existence in the first place was a psychological blow to the ANC. This caused a significant shift in approach to ANC internal politics, culminating in the rejection of the faction led by Jacob Zuma, which had controlled the party from 2009, and the ushering in of a reform programme embodied in the election of President Cyril Ramaphosa.
In 2019, the ANC did not take any chances. While the country was still in the grip of "Ramaphoria" — the promise embodied in the new sheriff at the top — it was more prepared for potential coalition talks.
Richard Calland, founding partner at the Paternoster Group for Political Risk, says the party even set up a task team to talk principles and strategies, though in the end it did not need it.
This time round, coalitions are on the lips of many party leaders, despite the bravado, and the ANC has thought more, and talked more, about the prospect than ever before.
The approach is unlikely to be "one size fits all", with different personalities and parties emerging as possible kingmakers in different councils.
"In SA, coalitions have been a mixed bag. There are very few places where they have worked and worked well," says a senior party leader, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"The key thing is to respect the will of the people, so the largest party should be allowed to form a government where there is no clear mandate."
Governments formed by parties that have not received the most votes have proved to be tricky to manage. The DA’s experience in Joburg after the 2016 election is a case in point.
Calland says the idea that the biggest party has the most legitimacy to form a government is "nonsense". All that matters is whether parties representing a majority of voters can reach agreement to take control of the council.
The approach by the ANC is likely to be similar to the one followed in Johannesburg, where a "government of local unity" was formed after the DA lost the council. The coalition, led by mayor Geoff Makhubo, held together until his death earlier this year.
Insiders say coalitions cannot be negotiated "from the top", referring to the party’s top leaders, when there are different issues at play at grass roots level. They have to take into account the personalities and characters who will be working together at council level.
The ad hoc approach likely to be taken by the ANC could also see co-operation agreements in place instead of full-out coalitions, where a minimum programme is agreed on and key decisions are voted on, on an issue-by-issue basis. This could mean the ANC or any other party taking control without having a guaranteed majority.
Calland says this type of arrangement is "precarious". While SA has learnt many lessons about coalitions over the past five years, it is not as mature in managing coalitions as Germany, for instance, which is taking months to form a new government.
"What is clear is that parties are going into it having put in a lot more thought … I doubt we will see a grand ANC/DA coalition, although there are some far-flung places where it has worked ... but they are not spoken of … what is more likely is co-operation between them rather than full-blown coalition agreements," he says.
An ANC/DA tie-up would be tough for internal ANC dynamics and further stoke internal divisions. An ANC/EFF coalition could be equally tough, says Calland. What is more likely is for the ANC to enter into agreements with smaller parties. This has worked well for it in Ekurhuleni since 2016.
It is clear that the ANC has not completely excluded any party from possible coalition or co-operation agreements.
However, leaders say parties that have expressed clear anti-ANC sentiment on the campaign trail, such as ActionSA, are unlikely to be approached.
Another deciding factor will be whether a party has won wards outright. A party that can win wards demonstrates it has a constituency and can be negotiated with to provide services for that constituency. One without wards makes it difficult to identify with a constituency, so negotiations become more about individual self-interest.
At the EFF’s last elective conference in 2019, leader Julius Malema cited as a key weakness his fledgling party’s inability to win wards and municipalities in local elections, and its inability to field councillors who are known by communities.
While the EFF has since won some wards in by-elections, this is not widespread.
It is clear that SA has officially entered the age of coalitions, a positive and natural progression, but there remains some way to go before parties and their leaders are mature enough to ensure that these serve the people rather than their own interests.
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