With more than half of the votes counted, the outcome of the municipal elections has is shaping up, with the ANC projected to suffer losses across the metros.
The Independent Election Commission (IEC) has acknowledged the elections to have had the lowest voter turnout.
With 90% of the vote expected to be counted by the end of Wednesday, the battle for the Ekurhuleni metro is a neck-and-neck race between the ANC and DA. Tshwane is also a close race between the two largest parties.
In the eThekwini metro analysts say that despite the challenges the ANC has faced, it will win but will be weaker than in 2016.
In the Eastern Cape, the ANC is leading in the Buffalo City metro. Nelson Mandela Bay is another close contest and a hung outcome is likely.
Analysis by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) by late afternoon on Tuesday projected wins of greater than 50% for the ANC in Buffalo City and Mangaung in the Free State.
The DA is expected to retain Cape Town with a projected win of 55.6%. The GOOD party, formed in 2018 after the city’s former mayor Patricia de Lille resigned from the DA, is projected to win just 3.9% of the vote in the city.
Various factors, including low voter turnout and growth in support for smaller opposition parties — ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus and the IFP, which have all made inroads across the metros — have led to the decline in votes for the three main parties.
For big business a smooth transition is a prerequisite, considering that the ratings agencies will be keeping a close watch on election matters and finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s maiden medium-term budget policy statement.
The Institute of Global Dialogue’s political analyst Sanusha Naidu says the fizz-out for the ANC is evident.
“This outcome shows that suburban voters voted with conscience especially in the ANC’s traditional strongholds. It deals a blow to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform plan, but also signals a maturity in the electorate.”
Cape Town is assured relative stability despite the DA numbers dropping, Naidu said. The incoming mayor will step into the economic plan with ease.
“The most stable will be the Cape metro. It gives the incoming mayor the ability to come to terms with the business plan. The challenge though is how to deliver on a more diversified economic development.”
Metros such as Nelson Mandela Bay and Ekurhuleni, by contrast, serve as beltways for commercial and cross-border trades regarding the national economic landscape.
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