In a development that raises the likelihood of potentially fractious ANC-led minority governments in some of the country’s biggest municipalities, coalition talks between opposition parties have collapsed.
In a news conference on Tuesday, the DA stopped short of conceding the City of Johannesburg, but went as far as to say its pathway to regaining the mayorship of the metro is narrow after this week’s announcement that a smaller party, the Patriotic Alliance, has struck a deal with the ANC.
“It is not about us wanting to get into government at all costs and it is not about positions at all costs. We would be setting ourselves up for failure,” DA leader John Steenhuisen said, adding that the party would not go into any formal agreements with the ANC or the EFF.
The EFF has also walked away from coalition talks with the ANC. “The door is closed. For political expediency or friendship, I will not sacrifice the EFF,” party leader Julius Malema said.
The breakdown in talks raises the possibility of the ANC securing enough votes in the form of a simple majority to elect mayors in Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni, where it failed to win an outright majority but still emerged as the biggest party overall.
The deadlock also raises the odds of instability because the minority government might run into trouble when passing municipal budgets and other policy proposals. And it could be fatal to the ANC, which has been punished in the past for poor service delivery.
A simple reading of the law and legal advice used in Gauteng metros since the local government elections in 2016 is that whichever party crosses the finish line with the majority of votes in a mayoral race in a municipality will win the election in council, provided a quorum of 50% plus one is reached at the meeting.
The meeting must happen before November 23, which is 14 business days after the first 2021 municipal result was declared. If no mayor is elected within 90 days of the first council sitting, the municipality would be placed under provincial administration, setting the stage for an election rerun.
There was no outright winner in any of the three Gauteng metros, with the three largest parties — the ANC, DA and EFF — all losing a share of the vote to ActionSA, the Freedom Front Plus and the Patriotic Alliance.
In Tshwane, which had been governed by the DA through a coalition with other smaller parties since 2016, the ANC took the lead with 34.63% of the votes, which equates to 75 seats out of 212. In order to regain the council, the ANC requires 42 more seats through coalitions with other small parties.
Kingmaker
This would, however, be difficult as both the EFF and the ActionSA, which garnered 10.69% and 8.64% of the vote, respectively, have closed the door on any coalition talks with the ANC.
In Johannesburg, ActionSA emerged as the kingmaker with 16.05% of the vote, behind the ANC’s 33.3% and the DA’s 26.14%. ActionSA has indicated its willingness to work with the DA or the ANC.
In Ekurhuleni, where the ANC governed through a coalition with smaller parties since 2016, the party managed to get 36.19% of the vote. The DA and the EFF got 28.72% and 13.47% of the vote, respectively.
The DA, which has indicated it is still trying to regain the capital, said it would not go into coalitions with every party that approaches it.
The chair of the federal council, Helen Zille, said the party would take into consideration “local compatibility” before entering into a coalition with other parties.
“If we know that it [the coalition] will collapse in three weeks because it is oil on water, then its best to be in opposition,” she said on Tuesday, adding that coalition talks by opposition parties in Tshwane had not yet started.
Alongside clinching a deal with the Patriotic Front, which lends its support in exchange for the mayorship in smaller municipalities, the ANC has reached “an understanding” with the IFP in eThekweni, where the IFP will vote alongside the ANC to install a mayor.
In return, the ANC will support the regional party in the northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal, Business Day understands. The arrangement is not a formal coalition.
The ANC lost majority control of the municipality in the local government elections, netting 43.24%, which gives it 96 seats in the 222-seat council. The DA won 26.58%, the EFF 10.81 % and the IFP 7.21%.
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