The ANC provincial executive in KwaZulu-Natal wants to avoid a repeat of the 2017 Nasrec national elective conference, when it lost out on key national positions after backing the losing presidential candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, insiders say.
ANC insiders in the province told Business Day on Monday the mood in branches in the province is to make sure KwaZulu-Natal has strong representation in the top six positions of the party, and an even stronger voice at the national elective conference this December.
Nine of the 11 ANC regional conferences in KwaZulu-Natal have gone the way of the so-called radical economic transformation (RET) faction, which is close to former president Jacob Zuma, suggesting that they might again not support his successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, as president of the party for a second term.
But even with this large support in the regions, the faction has yet to get a strong candidate to stand against Ramaphosa.
The province provides the largest delegation to the national conference. But Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape have already unofficially endorsed Ramaphosa for a second term, making a possible dissension by KwaZulu-Natal only an academic exercise.
“There is a feeling that the region’s voice is not being heard. There also appears to be a consolidation and a learning from past experiences, which is why the outcomes of the regional conferences in the province have gone the way of the RET factions,” political analyst Prof Bheki Mngomezulu said.
“The branches have no doubt learnt that unless they go to the national conference united, then the ANC in KZN suffers. The July provincial conference will be about closing the gaps so that someone from a distance can’t use it against them.”
Mngomezulu said the province has learnt from 2017 “when it shot itself in the foot and was defeated”. None of its candidates even came close to victory at the ANC elective conference. “There is also a sense of alienation from the national leadership.”
The race for the ANC provincial chair is now a four-way battle. It includes current chair Sihle Zikalala, with those in the RET grouping endorsing MEC for finance Nomusa Dube-Ncube and MEC for transport, community safety & liaison Peggy Nkonyeni. Other ANC members are openly supporting former director-general in the office of KwaZulu-Natal premier Nhlanhla Ngidi, who is adviser to Zikhalala.
Mngomezulu hedged his bet on a female premier for the region as either Dube-Ncube or Nkonyeni. “The political landscape to promote women cannot be ignored. The fact that two women are being supported means that the realisation is that the time is right for a woman premier. It is something the ANC as a party had previously endorsed.”
He said the ANC’s constitution dictates that the province is still the biggest in the party as it has the most number of branches when compared with Mpumalanga and Limpopo. “Traditionally, KZN has always been a very powerful force and a deal breaker when it comes to who will be the next ANC president,” he said.
On the issue of former health minister Zweli Mkhize and his name being put forward as a front-runner for the region’s presidential candidate for December, Mngomezulu said it is still early days.
“It is definitely clear that had he not been linked in the Digital Vibes saga, he would certainly have made a very worthy candidate to fight for the position. Given the step-aside rule, and the fact that it’s not clear when the Hawks or the NPA [National Prosecuting Authority] will make any arrest, he is in a difficult position,” he said.
“The problem is that showing your hand too early is a risk and your competitors will research you and find out things about you. That is politics.”
ANC provincial spokesperson Nhlakanipho Ntombela said it is early to call who is being nominated for what. “We are headed for the provincial conference in July. The date is yet to be determined. I would not like to speculate on slate politics. At this stage the focus is on uniting the ANC, renewal and regaining the ground we lost in the elections.”
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