A report by a local think-tank on how South Africans feel about coalition politics has found that about 80% of registered voters support the idea of their party taking part in coalitions where necessary.
In its August 2022 report, the Social Research Foundation (SRF), a think-tank focusing on public policy issues and the promotion of democracy, said eight out of 10 registered voters are in favour of a coalition future or could, “with the right messaging and examples of coalition success, become strongly in favour of a coalition future”.
The data is based on an opinion survey the SRF commissioned in July and conducted telephonically among a sample of 3,204 randomly selected and demographically and regionally representative registered voters. The overall margin of error is 1.7%.
The SRF said the figures will not add up to 100% where respondents were unable to answer a question.
There are 26-million registered voters in SA, according to the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC). The SRF said of the 3,204 polled registered voters, 47.8% are strongly in favour of coalitions when necessary and in the future, and support the idea of a grand coalition.
The report said 32.7% are sympathetic to the idea of coalitions, 11.5% are generally negative to the idea, while 7.5% are “very negative” to the idea.
Coalition politics is a new phenomenon in SA, and political analysts and local governance experts have said the ructions that have emerged within local councils are to be expected as coalitions are not established on sound principles and ideology but are largely about staying in power.
SA sentiment is ‘broadly negative on present social, economic and political circumstances and remains on balance negative about prospects for the future’.
The coalitions put together after the 2021 local government elections have been rocked by instability that has seen attempts to remove sitting executive mayors through motions of no confidence as political parties jockey for positions ahead of the national elections in 2024.
The SRF report states that “more than half of ANC supporters, almost 7/10 DA supporters, 6/10 EFF supporters, and near 8/10 FF+ [Freedom Front Plus] and ASA [ActionSA] supporters would endorse the idea of opposition parties coming together in some formalisation of a grand coalition”.
On voter views about whether opposition parties “like the DA, ActionSA, COPE, the IFP, the Patriotic Alliance, the UDM, the Freedom Front Plus and others” should join together in a grand coalition of opposition parties, 41% of ANC supporters (DA 40%, EFF 52%, FF+ 27% and ActionSA 37%) said this was “a very good idea”.
However, another 37% of ANC supporters (DA 15%, EFF 25%, FF+ 20%, ActionSA 10%) said this was “a very bad idea”.
In July, the ANC, in its Umrabulo magazine, was critical of coalition governments, saying they compromised its values and governance as it had been forced to enter into coalitions with smaller parties with widely divergent views to its own.
“Instead, the ANC must build on strong opposition to sway the support of voters in our favour and work towards regaining power and control,” the governing party said.
The ANC won only two of the eight metros in the country in the municipal elections in November, with an outright majority in Mangaung and Buffalo City.
“We lost 1,500 proportional and ward-councillor seats ... The ANC is now in opposition or minority government or coalitions in 83 out of 257 municipalities — almost one-third of municipalities,” it said in the magazine.
The SRF said it had been investigating public opinion in SA for the past several months and that some of its reports to date attest that SA sentiment is “broadly negative on present social, economic and political circumstances and remains on balance negative about prospects for the future”.
“That the prospect of a coalition future triggers majority positive sentiment makes this an exception, even where that sentiment is tempered by scepticism at the ability of political leaders to co-operate sufficiently.”
Dr Levy Ndou, a political analyst and expert on coalition politics, said: “If the ANC support at national level drops below 50% in the 2024 general election, then we are definitely heading towards coalitions in SA. Coalitions in SA are characterised by instability, infighting, scheming and politicians wanting positions.
“If coalitions are not properly managed, they have a potential to bring serious governance challenges. We have seen that in Joburg, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Tshwane might be next. All these talk to instability in governance.”
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