Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s entry in the ANC’s succession debate just days before branch nominations open has been met with shock and confusion, leaving party insiders and analysts sceptical that she can mount any serious challenge to President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Business Day has independently confirmed that former president Jacob Zuma is behind the push for his former wife and now co-operative governance minister to again mount a challenge for the ANC presidency at the party’s national conference in December.
If she goes ahead and stands, Dlamini-Zuma’s candidature could also have the net effect of splitting the vote in the province, the ANC’s largest by numbers. This could effectively also play into Ramaphosa’s hands.
While both the ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal’s leadership and suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule have confirmed meeting Zuma in recent weeks, they have not yet expressed support for his proposals. He did not confirm or deny the former president pushed for his former wife.
Zuma’s foundation spokesperson Mzwanele Manyi did
not respond to a request for comment.
Though nominations for the national elective conference are still to open, Dlamini-Zuma has publicly indicated she will throw her hat in the ring.
She lost to Ramaphosa by a small margin at the ANC’s last national conference in 2017. She also stood for ANC deputy
president in 2007, in support of former president Thabo Mbeki’s bid for a third term.
She will require the support of an ANC province or 25% of delegates on the conference floor to make it onto the ballot to challenge Ramaphosa.
Endorsements
Ahead of the opening of the ANC Ramaphosa has received endorsements from the party’s leadership in Limpopo, North West and Mpumalanga.
KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, Limpopo and Gauteng, which have a combined membership of more than 400,000, will send the largest number of delegates to the conference. Some 5,525 delegates are expected to attend it.
The ANC’s leadership in KwaZulu-Natal, Dlamini-Zuma’s home base, is yet to pronounce on its preferred candidate for ANC president. Some ANC insiders who spoke to Business Day believe that the endorsement for Dlamini-Zuma could dash former health minister Zweli Mkhize’s hopes of taking on Ramaphosa.
Siphiwe Blose, the chief lobbyist of Mkhize’s campaign, says no ANC branches in KwaZulu-Natal will take kindly to being “instructed to vote for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as a presidential candidate”.
Blose is a member of the ANC regional executive and working committees but was speaking in his personal capacity. He told Business Day on Monday he was shocked to hear that Dlamini-Zuma was putting up her hand for the position and that her former husband had in meetings with former ANC leaders Saturday openly sought to support her.
“We heard that a meeting took place with some leaders including the former ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule, but for other reasons and not that of the upcoming ANC elective conference. We were informed that at the meeting there was support sought for umama Dlamini- Zuma,” Blose said.
“We find this concerning given that the ANC provincial leadership and our chairperson Siboniso Duma held a meeting with him (Zuma) in Nkandla and nothing was mentioned.”
The news of the secret meeting came as branches in the province were expressing their choices for the upcoming ANC December conference.
“This will not detract those who are behind Mkhize. The ANC decisions are taken by branches and not by daughters, sons, or family,” Blose said.
ANC provincial spokesperson Mafika Mndebele said that the provincial leadership was not contacted or informed of Dlamini-Zuma contesting the post of ANC president. “We have taken a decision to allow the branches to make their choices and that still stands.”
Political analyst Protas Madlala said he was not convinced that Dlamini-Zuma’s announcement will hurt Mkhize’s chances. “Mkhize is a seasoned politician. It’s clear the majority of the branches in KwaZulu-Natal went to him and not him
to them.”
Mkhize’s candidature however is under a cloud. He resigned his ministerial post after being implicated in the Digital Vibes corruption saga. He is still to be charged.
Ramaphosa is also fighting off a scandal after thousands of US dollars were allegedly stolen at his Phala Phala farm in Limpopo. Should the two be charged, Dlamini-Zuma’s chances could improve.
“It is a pity that Zuma is now being linked to his former
wife. In 2017 Dlamini-Zuma lost at the ANC elective conference because of the name link and because people were still
bleeding from the mess associated with the former president,” Madlala said.
Political analyst Ralph Mathekga noted that Ramaphosa’s opponents were following the same game plan that they did in 2017.
“The question is whether Dlamini-Zuma is the right candidate. Ramaphosa has been weakened but that does not mean Dlamini-Zuma will win,” Mathekga said.
On Monday, the ANC provincial leadership met its counterparts in Mpumalanga. Key ANC insiders pointed out that the meeting was to sway KwaZulu-Natal to support Ramaphosa for a second term.
“There was nothing sinister about the meeting because before conferences it is normal to lobby each other to ensure that the correct people are elected,” said a highly placed Mpumalanga provincial executive committee member who declined to be named.
“Apart from the discussion on candidates we discussed policies of the ANC should adopt at the conference.”
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