With well more than 50% of the ANC branches in KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and Gauteng having convened gatherings to nominate their leadership candidates, President Cyril Ramaphosa has been “mostly nominated” for re-election as the party’s leader.
Former health minister Zweli Mkhize, co-operative governance & traditional affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma and tourism minister Lindiwe Sisulu have proved to have “some” significant “support”, but it is still unclear whether all of them have enough votes to contest Ramaphosa on the ballot.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC’s largest voting block going into the elective meeting, Mkhize has “most” of the support, with Dlamini Zuma and Ramaphosa garnering “some”, according to the party’s provincial and regional leadership.
Leadership contests in the party have always been a behind the scenes affair, with those seeking positions hiding behind branches whenever they have been asked for comment. Now the ANC’s rank and file is speaking loudly and clearly on the party’s succession battle — a week before branch nominations close.
The stakes are high in what has thus far been a bruising battle for the heart and soul of the party. Getting onto the governing party’s top brass is the fastest route to becoming a minister in the national executive.
Business Day spoke to ANC provincial and regional leaders in all provinces, with a specific focus on those with the largest voting delegations going into the ANC’s national conference in December.
A significant number declined to comment on the record, bearing in mind the nomination process still has seven or so days to go. But speaking off the record everyone told Business Day a picture was beginning to emerge.
In addition to Ramaphosa and Mkhize seemingly already having the numbers to be on the ballot to contest for ANC president, across the board — from Gauteng to Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape — acting secretary-general Paul Mashatile has been “highly nominated” for deputy president, with justice minister Ronald Lamola also showing “strong” support. Both are also likely to be on the ballot to contest for ANC deputy president.
There is excitement in all provinces about the CR2022 slate’s suggestion that former ANC Youth League president and transport minister Fikile Mbalula was again gunning for the post of secretary-general.
This is despite Mbalula having entered the ANC’s succession debate late. In addition, former ANC KwaZulu-Natal secretary Mdumiseni Ntuli and deputy public enterprises minister Phumulo Masualle “have already got the numbers” to possibly contest for that position .
A late entrant for the post, Senzo Mchunu would find it hard to convince the conference to vote for him in the position. In 2017, Mchunu — who was part of the victorious CR17 slate — narrowly lost to the now suspended Ace Magashule.
ANC leaders in Johannesburg and Polokwane said this week that their branches had “rejected” Mchunu, who was put forward as the CR2022 campaign’s candidate without Ramaphosa’s express blessing.
“There is no Senzo Mchunu,” a regional leader in Johannesburg said.
“Senzo is being rejected on principle. People don’t know him, why must they support him,” a regional leader in Polokwane said.
“What has he done with two top ministerial positions under President Ramaphosa? Nothing. Now because a faction says we must support him, we must jump. No,” one regional leader in East London said.
Another in eThekwini added “there is no support” for Mchunu just yet.
Many in the Eastern Cape who Business Day spoke to said “support for Senzo is coming”.
Another interesting duel is the fight for the position of chair of the ANC.
Both Limpopo premier Stan Mathabatha and the incumbent, energy minister Gwede Mantashe, as well as deputy finance minister David Masondo have considerable support for the position.
Despite earlier promises and resolutions to the effect that more women should take over leadership positions in the party, it is unclear whether Sisulu and human settlements minister Mmamoloko Kubayi will have enough support to be on the ballot for the ANC top brass.
Once branch nominations wrap up on October 25, regions and provinces will hold general councils to decide on their way forward. Campaigning by candidates will then begin in earnest to sway support ahead of the December 16 meeting.
To be on the ballot for a ANC leadership position at the national conference it will require a single provincial nomination or 25% of the conference floor.
Eastern Cape provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane criticised those in the party who had broken with tradition by openly campaigning for positions in the top brass for months. He also said branches were not happy with slates being imposed on them by factions in the party.
“The ANC must move forward from the dark culture of factional conferences. We must select the best cadres among us and that should be the guiding framework,” Mabuyane said.
Joburg secretary for the ANC Sasabona Manganye agreed many branches had expressed objections to being dictated to by candidate or factions. “There seems to be an allergy to factional politics emerging from the ground up,” Manganye said.
Political analyst Ralph Mathekga said the question is now how Ramaphosa and Mashatile will use their influence to sway support for the other positions in the ANC top six and national executive committee.
“It looks like Mashatile is stronger than Ramaphosa. We will see how they both use their strength. It is unpredictable for the rest,” Mathekga said.
He added that this was an opportunity to end factionalist agendas and move away from slate politics, if Ramaphosa and Mashatile decided.
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