Though ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa enjoyed the lion’s share of branch support in the ANC leadership nomination process, several headaches await him. He is likely to be paired with treasurer-general and acting secretary-general Paul Mashatile as his number two.
Mashatile transcends many factions, bringing with him support that demonstrates cross-cutting cleavages across the party base. Alignment between the two and their support bases will take painstaking management of often thorny dynamics.
Mashatile has emerged as a frontrunner for deputy president, with Mdumiseni Ntuli a leading contender to be secretary-general. Nomvula Mokonyane could be the next deputy secretary-general, and Limpopo chair Stanley Mathabatha could be chosen as national chair.
Ramaphosa’s inner cabinet has tried to rattle Mashatile in recent months, weakening his popularity and control of the party’s administrative levers. Mashatile, a skilful manoeuvrer, seems to take all the darts trained at him like a duck would brush water off its back.
Mashatile’s backers believe he can form a good relationship with Ramaphosa. However, that partnership will naturally come at the expense of another block in Ramaphosa’s closely knit inner circle, which includes the likes of minister in the presidency Mondli Gungubele and former tourism minister Derek Hanekom. It is understood this Ramaphosa team had preferred that someone within their camp be identified and supported for the number two position in the party. Options included justice minister Ronald Lamola, human settlements minister Mmamoloko Kubayi and water and sanitation minister Senzo Mchunu.
Mashatile stands head and shoulders plus a whole body ahead of his rivals in the nomination stakes.
This factor presents itself as a risk for Ramaphosa and his supporters. They cannot afford to antagonise Mashatile further, as this could push him into the hands of Zweli Mkhize, trailing Ramaphosa with his 916 votes to 2037.
The “RamaShatile” team would have to close ranks and pull the ANC coherently and consistently from the Nasrec election to the 2024 election. Mashatile brings his baggage: the ANC is in its worst financial shape in history, with the party regularly struggling to pay salaries. He will also have to rebrand himself along the lines of the ANC’s renewal propaganda and shed the remnants of his image as a Gauteng baron.
The ANC has a history of last-minute deals. Recent ANC conferences have been full of surprises where those that thought they were, and looked to be, ahead in the nomination stakes lost votes to their opponents come election day. Ramaphosa knows only too well that Mashatile pushed him over the line five years ago. Mashatile then led Gauteng delegates into a marriage with David Mabuza’s Mpumalanga. The collaboration gave Ramaphosa the edge over his then-opponent Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
Someone like Mashatile is better placed to understand the post-liberation movement ANC. He was only 29 when the party was unbanned, just graduated from student politics and trying to find his way around the erstwhile Transvaal region of the ANC.
Ramaphosa was already a prominent national figure, established in union and mass movements of the 1980s. He is the 38-year-old bearded man in the famous Grand Parade, Cape Town, picture, holding the microphone as the just-released Nelson Mandela gave his first public address in 27 years. A year later, he became secretary-general, and a couple of years later Mandela voiced his wish to be succeeded by Ramaphosa when elections in the party were a matter of selection by the ANC’s grand oldies.
Mashatile’s experience is unlike Ramaphosa’s. His rise has been through the controversial field, dog-eat-dog politics, horse-trading and money-fuelled politics. He has been central to the party’s relationship with the EFF, starting with the coalition negotiations of 2016, signifying an ability to do politics with people from all walks of life. He is a master of realpolitik and uses practical skills and even expediency where necessary.
He was one of the leaders who drove Jacob Zuma out of the Union Buildings when the Prince of Nkandla ignored instructions from Luthuli House to vacate office in 2018. These skills are enough to make Ramaphosa uncomfortable now ahead of the elections and should the two of them get elected as president and deputy.
The coming days are likely to see Mashatile under pressure from his backers and associates, expecting him to signal clearly who he prefers in the Mkhize-vs-Ramaphosa duel. Some of Mashatile’s votes come from KwaZulu-Natal, a province that has overwhelmingly supported Mkhize. He will be tested in managing these Mkhize supporters, but it does not end there. He has to keep a close eye on Limpopo politics and developments in other provinces.
While juggling many balls will be Mashatile’s preoccupation, Ramaphosa will need to walk a tightrope through consolidating his support and at the same time keeping his bulldogs on a tighter leash. Ramaphosa cannot afford a case where his closest associates further antagonise Mashatile and others in an ANC that is lukewarm about his leadership in the first term. While anything is theoretically possible in politics, a defeat for Ramaphosa stands out as an unlikely event.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs firm Mkokeli Advisory.
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