The outcome of this weekend’s ANC leadership contest is likely to shock and surprise many, with a mixed bag of leaders likely to emerge from the conference.
With just days left before the ANC’s succession debate is decided, serious horse-trading is taking place behind the scenes as the various slates and provincial committees jostle for senior leadership positions in the party.
About 3,500 ANC branches are expected to send voting delegates to the party’s national conference, which begins on Friday.
Among other programmes, the delegates are also expected to vote for the party’s top six leaders and the 86 members of the national executive committee — the topmost organ between conferences.
Former health minister Zweli Mkhize has been nominated to run against Ramaphosa, who got 2,037 nominations. If he manages to unite all of the president’s opponents behind him, Mkhize could give Ramaphosa a good run for his money.
The CR2022/Renew caucus met earlier this month to discuss the possibility of raising their preferred candidates — who did not make the ballot — from the floor of the conference.
The grouping, who say they are aligned to Ramaphosa’s second-term ambitions, include minister in the presidency Mondli Gungubele , transport minister Fikile Mbalula and ANC NEC member Derek Hanekom.
They are said to prefer water & sanitation minister Senzo Mchunu, who did not garner enough nominations to make the ballot, to be put forward as a candidate for ANC deputy president. Insiders say his name is likely to be raised from the floor.
“This is a confirmation of that decision,” a well-placed source in the CR2022 camp said after Ramaphosa appeared with Mchunu at a government event in Giyani, Limpopo, on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Mkhize has been criss-crossing Gauteng with the aim of winning more supporters.
ANC Greater Johannesburg regional secretary Sasabona Manganye said: “He [Ramaphosa] has been nominated by 48% of branches in Gauteng.”
ANC Ekurhuleni regional chair Mzwandile Masina refused to comment.
But ANC Tshwane regional chair Eugene Modise said his region is rallying behind Ramaphosa, adding: “We are also behind Paul Mashatile for deputy president.”
While ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile (1,791 nominations) remains a shoo-in for the position of deputy president, his fellow contenders, justice minister Ronald Lamola (427) and Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane (397) are said to be preparing to join forces at the conference to dismantle Mashatile’s lead for the second most powerful position in the ANC.
The deal, which is allegedly being brokered by the leadership of the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga where Mabuyane and Lamola received the majority of their endorsements, respectively, will see the pair exchange the nominations they received for deputy president and treasurer-general.
Lamola and Mabuyane received 277 and 71 nominations for the position of treasurer-general, respectively.
“There is no bad blood between the pair [Lamola and Mabuyane] … they are closer now than they were a few weeks back, so by conference there will definitely be an agreement,” said a Lamola lobbyist.
Mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe, who is in the running to be re-elected as party chair, told ANC members at the weekend that Limpopo, which is the ANC’s second-biggest voting bloc after KwaZulu-Natal, should allow other provinces to be represented in the party’s top six.
Branches nationally nominated provincial chair Stanley Mathabatha to be the ANC’s next chair. He secured 1,492 nominations, followed by Mantashe’s 979 and deputy finance minister David Masondo’s 501.
Political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast said negotiations between provinces are unlikely to produce candidates who are solely from one slate because “people [ANC members] have been crossing swords in public [and] there has not been any unity”.
“The unity slate might be a way to deal with tensions in the ANC. If the conference can produce a unity slate, maturity will be required to make it work,” said political analyst Levy Ndou.
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