President Cyril Ramaphosa will be happy with his second Nasrec victory, notwithstanding his small margin of victory. In the short term, he may take comfort from the thorough whipping of KwaZulu-Natal, the province that led the onslaught against him, serving as a base for Zweli Mkhize’s campaign.
He is surrounded by familiar faces in the ANC top seven, from Gwede Mantashe, the national chair, to Gwen Ramokgopa, the new treasurer-general. These politicians were instrumental to his second-term victory.
Ramaphosa has a lot to worry about, though. First, figures like Nomvula Mokonyane and Paul Mashatile were not part of his inner cabinet during the campaign. He now has no choice but to live and work with them as equal partners who have been officially elected independently and in their own right as members of the top seven.
Ramaphosa’s camp had resisted the idea of Mashatile as deputy president. Eventually, it fielded two candidates in the form of Oscar Mabuyane and Ronald Lamola, who split the vote and, combined, fell five votes below Mashatile.
Mashatile’s success was despite his rejection by Ramaphosa’s confidants during the campaign. Ramaphosa relied on the counsel of minister in the presidency Mondli Gungubele and former tourism minister Derek Hanekom, among others, towards the end of his first term.
Mashatile’s rise to the powerful deputy president role and potential Ramaphosa successor creates a new awkward relationship for all. In terms of party processes and culture, Ramaphosa has to work closely with Mashatile as deputy.
In addition, Ramaphosa continues to have a KwaZulu-Natal problem. The province was whipped in the conference and does not have a single member in the top seven. But failure to manage the consequences could lead to serious problems for the ANC during the 2024 general elections.
KwaZulu-Natal is a province that is fertile ground for Jacob Zuma’s politics of destabilisation that are meant to bring the whole house down. The ANC is in turmoil in eThekwini, where a coalition arrangement is in jeopardy. Also, a resurging IFP is making inroads into the ANC’s base, judging by the outcomes of the recent elections.
KwaZulu-Natal provided about 20% of the 10-million votes the ANC earned in the 2019 election. A disunited ANC in that province will potentially drag its national figure down. It is also a cauldron of mutiny and disobedience politics, which was central to the 2021 unrest sparked by the arrest of Zuma.
Voters in KwaZulu-Natal may struggle to connect with the new top seven, which is dominated by Gauteng-based politicians.
Ramaphosa and Mantashe may claim their heritage from Limpopo and Eastern Cape, respectively, but their political profiles come from their time as unionists in Gauteng. Secretary-general Fikile Mbalula may list isiXhosa as his mother tongue and Free State as his home province, but he also came through the ANC Youth League route to national politics. The list goes on.
Ramaphosa may need to embrace some of his allies from KwaZulu-Natal a bit more and look to give them prominent roles in cabinet, as a way to manage the problem created by the Nasrec election. But that may not be enough, considering the broad nature of the ethnic and regional cleavages in SA.
• Mkokeli is the lead partner at Mkokeli Advisory.
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