A cabinet reshuffle after the ANC’s national conference in December is expected but is not yet imminent.
Serious consultations are expected at the end of January, ANC leaders and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s aids confirmed to Business Day this weekend.
Speaking in the Free State ahead of the ANC’s January 8 statement, Ramaphosa conceded that he “needed time”.
“Wait for the moment when the president has applied his mind and stop asking when is that going to happen. The president will apply his mind, and as always, we will be coming to you all and the nation and telling you what will happen. Relax, have a cup of coffee, sit back and watch this space,” Ramaphosa told the media ahead of golf day activities at the Bloemfontein Golf Club.
ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile also conceded this weekend that the ANC was under pressure ahead of the national and provincial election in 2024.
He was adamant that the government should occupy itself with formulating and outlining the state’s plan of action for the year ahead and not immerse itself, or get caught up in which members might make it into the cabinet.
“Some other comrades are going to resign, obviously. For example, Comrade (Fikile) Mbalula must come and be full time at Luthuli house, so it means there is going to have to be a replacement,” said Mashatile.
Mbalula, who now serves as minister of transport, was elected ANC secretary-general in December.
After losses of electoral support in successive elections, the governing ANC is on track to not only lose its majority in the 2024 general poll but the party has also haemorrhaged support in urban centres such as Johannesburg, eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay and Mangaung in recent local government elections.
Economic growth and business confidence in SA remains stagnant amid continued governance and energy instability, which includes the country facing the worst power cuts in 2022 since load-shedding began in 2008.
Mbalula confirmed that a cabinet reshuffle is on the cards.
Public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan, minister of international relations Naledi Pandor and tourism minister Lindiwe Sisulu are among officials left out of the party’s national executive committee’s highest decision-making body.
Mbalula said the party would pick up discussions on the cabinet after concluding the delayed 55th national elective conference, and the January 8 statement.
Ramaphosa will decide on a cabinet reshuffle when he has “applied his mind”.
Political analyst Ongama Mtimka said who won and who lost in the ANC’s succession debate should not be what occupies Ramaphosa’s mind, as he considers his cabinet.
“I think we should push for cabinet reshuffles that are based on performance and not what has most recently happened in the party from a realignment of factions’ perspective.”
Some of the biggest concerns from the business community, said Mtimka, is energy security. “Most see Gwede Mantashe (ANC chairperson and energy minister) being a thorn in the flesh. However I am strongly opposed to a minister who sees no role for coal, because that creates an environment where [an energy] transition gets made in bad faith.”
Another political analyst Mcebisi Ndletyana said a cabinet reshuffle was urgent.
“Ramaphosa has to [make changes to cabinet]. For any president, especially one in a parliamentary system, there is absolutely a necessity to recognise and reward those who elected him at a party level. That is the basic principle. If the president was elected in the purely presidential election system, he would not need to reshuffle,” Ndletyana said.
He added that the big leadership question for Ramaphosa is what to do with those accused of state capture but who have subsequently found their way back into the ANC’s leadership executive.
“Their rhetoric is not matched by action. It is as if the state capture inquiry did not happen.”
Ndletyana said the implementation of the recommendations of the state capture commission now needed to happen outside the ANC.
“Once people have been formally charged, only then will they suspend leaders elected at the ANC’s conference,” Ndletyana said.
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