Load-shedding topped the list of issues in voters’ minds ahead of the 2024 general elections as ANC and DA polling of registered voters shows the governing party’s electoral support slipping to below 40%.
The sample of registered voters has historically been more accurate than other notable independent polls. The results suggest South Africans are so angry with the ANC over power blackouts that they are not considering a mass stayaway as they have done in previous elections but will be voting for the DA or EFF in big numbers come 2024's ballot, according to party insiders.
On Wednesday, Eskom announced that load-shedding would escalate to stages 4 and 5 on Thursday morning.
The Financial Mail reported in December that when the ANC’s research team presented its findings at the party’s national executive committee meeting leaders realised that 2024's election could be devastating. It was reported that the ANC’s electoral support could slip to as little as 40% in the next election but also that as ANC leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa still remained somewhat more popular that his party.
The internal surveys, which are confidential, add to evidence of discontent in the country, which has endured four to eight hours of power cuts daily in recent months as well as rampant unemployment and corruption.
Other polls have put the ANC’s electoral support at below 50% in the 2024 national election, sparking worries among some political analysts that the ANC government could cling to power with destructive, populist macroeconomic policies.
Earlier this week, Ramaphosa said he had asked the board of Eskom to hold off on implementing an 18% increase in the price of electricity as granted by the energy regulator, Nersa. Eskom, which is choking on a R400bn debt load, has been calling for higher tariffs for years to reflect the cost of producing electricity.
Both the ANC and DA’s polling predicted a huge loss of support for the governing party in previous elections due to e-tolls on Gauteng’s roads as well as corruption. In both the 2014 and 2019 elections that was proved correct in the Gauteng and national vote tally.
Civil disobedience campaign
All this comes ahead of what could be the largest civil disobedience campaign since 1994, with opposition parties embarking on legal action and protests over load-shedding in the coming days.
On Wednesday, the DA marched to Luthuli House, the ANC’s headquarters in Johannesburg, to highlight the governing party’s failure to intervene to resolve Eskom’s challenges. At the same time a broad civil society coalition heads to court to end both load-shedding and the price increase.
On Tuesday, UDM leader Bantu Holomisa, Build One South Africa leader Mmusi Maimane and National Union of Metalworkers of SA general secretary Irvin Jim applied to the high court in Pretoria to try to stop the 18.65% tariff increase.
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