President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to announce a reshuffle of the national executive early this week, ahead of the state of the nation address, in a move that could alter the trajectory of SA.
How decisive Ramaphosa is and whether he puts the national interest above all else is also likely to seal the ANC’s fate in the 2024 general election.
Business Day reported in January that both the ANC and DA’s polling of registered voters showed the governing party’s vote would by affected by the deepening energy crisis which could see its support drop to below 40% in the national ballot. The ANC has already lost electoral support in successive elections, putting it on track to lose its majority next year.
Due to resignations, new ANC MPs are scheduled to be sworn in on Monday. At last count on Sunday, there were four vacancies that opened up due to resignations from the ANC’s benches in parliament.
That will clear the path for Ramaphosa to reshuffle his cabinet.
Deputy president David Mabuza’s absence at the first biannual cabinet lekgotla, attended by ministers, deputy ministers and directors-general, last week also set the tone for Ramaphosa’s address on Thursday.
He must now decide if he will use the occasion to usher in a new national executive.
The worsening energy crisis, state of the economy and high levels of crime affecting households, businesses and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to feature prominently when the president addresses parliament and the nation.
Cabinet reshuffle
Business Unity SA’s call for the ministry of mineral resources & energy to be split into separate entities, as well as for a ring-fenced state of disaster to be declared to confront the challenge of load-shedding, could also have a major influence on Ramapahosa’s cabinet reshuffle.
Business Day reported in January that Ramaphosa was considering removing Gwede Mantashe as energy minister and co-operative governance minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, who led ministerial efforts during the Covid-19 lockdown.
Market watchers have flagged the energy crisis as one of the big factors harming SA’s economic prospects. The Reserve Bank calculated that load-shedding will shave off two percentage points of growth in 2023. This means growth is now expected at 0.3% instead of 2.3%.
These issues are expected to feature when opposition political parties and trade union federations — including the DA and the SA Federation of Trade Unions — propose alterative state of the nation addresses this week.
Also in parliament this week there will be a joint meeting of the portfolio committee on public enterprises and mineral resources in the National Assembly and National Council of Provinces. Eskom is expected to be in the house to present something on the medium-term solutions to load-shedding and to elaborate on its budget for the maintenance of coal plants.
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