The decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, for alleged war crimes is likely to further divide the international community and pose a serious challenge to SA’s foreign policy.
On March 17, the global criminal court tasked with prosecuting serious crimes such as war crimes and genocide, decided that Putin has a case to answer.
The allegations relate to the deportation of children and women from Ukraine to Russia-controlled areas during Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022 and has been raging ever since. Also charged was Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights.
News of the charges has been welcomed by Western governments, which have been lobbying the ICC to charge Putin.
US President Joe Biden was among the first to welcome the announcement at the weekend. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, has expressed Kyiv’s gratitude to the ICC.
As expected, Russia has denounced and ridiculed the ICC decision.
However, the developing world — Latin America, Asia and Africa — is likely to be lukewarm, at best, and, at worst, is likely to be against the decision.
China, a close ally of Russia, has yet to formally pronounce its stance on the ICC decision, but outright support is unlikely to be on the table.
Xi in Russia
Chinese President Xi Jinping is due to have lunch with Putin in Moscow on Monday. It makes the timing of the visit all the more curious: it comes just weeks after Beijing released its 12-point plan on how the Russia-Ukraine war could be resolved, and what, if any, role China is willing to play.
Cautious optimism has been raised about Monday’s visit to Moscow, and Beijing’s willingness to play “a constructive” role in the conflict’s resolution.
Pretoria’s stance has been to sit on the fence and advocate for dialogue, and offer to mediate. To date it is unclear whether the offer has been accepted or has yielded any outcome.
To the West’s annoyance, Naledi Pandor, SA’s international relations & co-operation minister, hosted Sergei Lavrov, her Russian counterpart, a month ago. And Russia and China recently held naval military exercises with SA.
Africa has a love-hate relationship with the ICC. It is one of few continents whose leaders have been prosecuted and for whom arrest warrants have been issued by the court.
The road to charging and prosecuting Putin will not be easy. For a start, Russia is not a signatory to the Rome Statute, the enabling pact that set up the ICC. Neither is the US, which has lobbied for the criminal prosecution of Putin. China, too, is not a signatory.
The ICC relies on the co-operation of governments and law enforcement agencies to implement its decision and has been undermined by signatory governments including Pretoria. For example, in 2015, SA allowed Omar al-Bashir, then Sudanese president, to visit the country to attend an AU summit. He was also allowed to leave without being arrested despite a warrant for his arrest.
Legal obligations
After this controversial decision to allow Bashir safe exit, the government announced it was reconsidering its continued participation in the ICC.
Mdumiseni Ntuli, a member of the ANC’s national executive committee and the party’s head of campaigns, dismissed the arrest warrant as not a good idea and suggested it would not resolve the conflict, according to the SABC.
Vincent Magwenya, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, said SA is aware of its international legal obligations and will engage all role players between now and August on the modalities of the summit in SA of Brics members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA). “It remains our commitment that the conflict in Ukraine is resolved peacefully through negotiations.”
In theory, at least, the Brics summit will be the perfect opportunity to arrest and hand over Putin to the ICC. But that is unlikely to happen, diplomats say, citing the following reasons. If, as is probable, the war in Ukraine is still going on then, it might not be prudent for Putin to travel that far. And Pretoria has no diplomatic appetite to take on Moscow — the fallout risks are far too great to contemplate and go beyond Russian-SA relations.
Even though $2bn bilateral trade is not huge, the historical, ideological and political ties between Moscow and the ANC-led SA government are strong.
At a Black Business Council annual gala dinner last year, the mention of the Russian ambassador’s name attracted a loud round of applause.
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