The ANC is pinning its hopes on internal research that shows its two big competitors, the DA and the EFF, have reached voter ceilings. The party says the findings could raise its chances of winning the elections in 2024.
The ANC’s internal research, which Business Day has seen, is in stark contrast to other polls, including a recent survey by Ipsos on behalf of the Inclusive Society Institute (ISI). The poll, released in April, shows that the ANC is likely to fall short of the 50% +1 required to win an outright majority in 2024, with the DA and EFF receiving 15.76% and 12.8% respectively.
Discontent over various socioeconomic issues such as high unemployment, the energy crisis, high cost of living and lack of basic service delivery have cost the ANC electoral support in previous national and provincial elections.
In the 2021 municipal elections, the ANC received 46% of the vote, forcing it to form coalitions with opposition parties. Fears are that this trend could continue in the next general election.
“The ANC’s decline is well-known. What is hardly talked about is the DA’s decline and vote- shedding. The EFF was growing dramatically but is now levelling, reaching a ceiling,” the ANC document says.
The research, presented to the party’s top brass in April by ANC head of political education David Makhura, noted the progress the IFP is making in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) at the expense of the ANC.
“The IFP declined drastically between 2009 and 2014 elections but it is now showing signs of resurrection in KZN at the expense of the ANC,” said the report.
Business Day understands that the ANC has summoned its provincial secretaries to Johannesburg for an election strategy meeting at the weekend in preparation for the 2024 elections.
As part of its pre-election strategy, the ANC plans to put prospective premier candidates through a rigorous vetting process, which includes interviews, criminal record checks and applying stringent qualifying criteria. The interview process puts an end to the long-standing ANC tradition that its provincial chairpersons automatically become candidates for premier in their respective provinces.
The ANC research findings bemoan the emergence of smaller political parties and independent candidates, which they say erode ANC votes.
“New parties and community-based organisations are cannibalising existing parties and are gaining seats in municipalities, provincial legislature and national parliament and there is increased fragmentation of the party system,” the ANC report said.
“The advent of independent candidates in the 2024 elections may increase cannibalisation and fragmentation of provincial and national government. Whether these political developments will improve the quality of democracy and development outcomes is still open for debate.”
The document says the emergence of ActionSA, largely a splinter party from the DA and led by former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba, has affected the electoral support of both the DA and the ANC in Gauteng. However, because of ActionSA’s “internal ructions”, its support is now levelling off, the findings said.
To end ANC dominance the DA has proposed a “moonshot pact” of all opposition parties. The DA says the IFP, ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus, National Freedom Party and United Independent Movement have agreed to meet in the coming months to formalise an agreement.
“Instead of an unseemly last-minute scramble for positions, the convention would take place about one year before the 2024 national election, enabling parties to agree on principles that will guide the formation of a pact government,” DA leader John Steenhuisen said on Wednesday.
Stellenbosch University political analyst Amanda Gouws said the pact could succeed in some provinces but is likely to flop nationally. “It may work in some provinces, but the small parties do not have enough support everywhere to get the DA and its partners over 50%,” Gouws said.
“The ANC and the EFF may just get 50% plus one to form a governing coalition,” she said.
EFF spokesperson Sinawo Tambo told Business Day: “The EFF is polling well, based on external polls alone as there is no evidence of a decline or stagnancy in our voter base. In fact, Ipsos polls the EFF as likely to increase on percentage terms in the 2024 national elections.”
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