Traditional supporters of the ANC and DA have viable alternatives to choose from as the country heads to the 2024 general elections.
Former Business Day editor Songezo Zibi, former DA leader Mmusi Maimane, health activist Zackie Achmat and erstwhile ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule have launched, or are planning to launch, political parties ahead of the elections.
The 2024 national and provincial ballot comes as SA reaches 30 years of democracy, a milestone that has traditionally seen liberation movements in Africa lose political power. It is also noteworthy the ANC and DA have declined in terms of support in successive elections, putting the governing party on track to lose its majority in 2024.
Since the last general election in 2019, the middle and working class have not only borne the burden of state capture but also maladministration and corruption at power utility Eskom.
Many tax payers in SA have had little choice but to pay for private health and education as well as policing through private security companies and car, home and life insurance amid high rates of violent crime. Murder as well as violent crime including aggravated assault, house break ins and rape, have been on the rise in SA.
Businesses in SA, on the issue of crime and load-shedding — especially retailers, tourism and transport — feel they are on their own. Now many South African's are also being forced to install solar or generators at their own cost and are even considering digging bore holes on their properties to a find an alternate water supply.
While the ANC projects it will win in the 2024 general elections, it is unclear — amid severe load-shedding and a cost of living crisis that has seen the price of basic foods like bread and eggs dramatically increase — if either of SA’s two biggest political parties can win back the confidence of traditional supporters since the last vote.
The DA has haemorrhaged support in recent elections to the FF Plus and ActionSA, amid the party facing an identity crisis. Meanwhile, in the 2016 and 2021 municipal vote in Gauteng, ANC voters stayed away en masse. In KwaZulu-Natal, many ANC voters stayed away or retreated back to voting for the IFP.
Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are among the most populous provinces in SA as the country heads to the polls in 2024. The stay away of traditional voters in Gauteng saw the ANC lose metro's in Gauteng in the 2016 and 2021 general elections.
In many municipalities in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State, the ANC has lost more than 10% of the vote in one election in recent years. If that trend continues it will difficult for the ANC to maintain the overwhelming majority it has had since 1994.
Political analysts agree that 2024’s national and provincial election will be “unprecedented” in SA’s history.
“The quality of life has declined so much so that it now impacts the price of food and telecom. All these problems have resulted in a disillusioned electorate in general and the middle class paying for public services that they are not using, which is likely to allow voters to consider changing their vote to new political entrants,” Prof Mcebisi Ndletyana said.
“Now that there are alternatives they present a compelling case to ANC and DA voters to change their vote. We only need to look at recent electoral trends to show that systematic change is coming. You would have a multiplicity of parties that win up to three seats in parliament and the shrinkage of bigger parties,” political analyst Ongame Mtimka said.
With the three biggest political parties in SA — the ANC, the DA and EFF — having very different views, voters who have been disgruntled have, in recent elections, largely opted to stay away from the polls rather than changing their vote.
“I think that [2024] is unlike the elections in 2019, where there was a tremendous focus on three parties. There are a lot of new entrants that will capture the hearts and minds of South Africans. The question is that whether this will create a dent. I think yes,” electoral analyst Wayne Sussman said.
“There are impressive people behind the party. The million dollar question is how does he take appeal into an election machinery that can get supporters out on election day. It one thing to be a highly regarded or charismatic individual, it is another thing for a party to be able to turn out the vote come election day,” Sussman added.
However, Ndletyana said the problem with Rise Mzanzi, Maimane’s Bosa and Achmat’s Unite Behind is that they would most likely be dipping into the same voting pool.
“Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA did well in 2021 because he offered people an option. The ANC, DA and EFF appeal to a particular set of voters. The question is, will both the ANC’s and DA’s voters see the new entrance as a viable option?” Ndletyana said.
Sussman added that both Rise Mzanzi and Bosa would be targeting the same funding channels, while Achmat’s prospects of success if he still has the same infrastructure behind him that he had when he led protests and legal action to force the government to roll out antiretrovirals, could lead to Unite Behind having mass appeal.
“Zackie Achmat has great organisational capacity, he is a proven fundraiser and will get a lot of media attention,” Sussman said.
“Dismiss Ace Magasuhule at your own peril. There are a lot of negatives to say about Ace Magashule but he is a good organiser. Also, he is from the Free State and the ANC declined a lot there in the [2021] local government elections,” Sussman said.
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