With President Cyril Ramaphosa having pulled off a diplomatic coup in getting his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to attend the Brics Summit virtually to avoid SA having to execute an International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest, the focus now shifts to the possible outcomes of the meeting.
Business Day reliably understands that Ramaphosa has now got “broad consensus” from “all” Brics member states including India, China, Brazil and Russia to expand the grouping that fosters political and economic co-operation.
“Ramaphosa has had more than 30 conversations with his counterparts and the decision is now clear. The Brics Summit will take the decision to expand,” a source in the presidency said.
“Consensus is how Brics works. If one member state disagrees, then there is no decision. The president has diligently worked to convince India especially that this is the right course of action,” the source added.
SA’s ambassador to Brics, Anil Sooklal, also confirmed that aside from the 22 countries that have formally asked to join, there is “an equal number of countries that have informally expressed interest in becoming Brics members [including] all the major global south countries”.
Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the countries looking to join, Sooklal said.
Earlier this year, SA found itself at the centre of a storm regarding the Brics summit. While the furore caused by Putin’s insistence on attending the summit in person seems to have died down after the announcement that he will no longer come to SA for the August meeting, its political and economic effects are still being felt in SA.
For a few months SA was a political and economic battlefield after its ally Russia invaded neighbouring Ukraine amid allegations of human rights abuses and the destruction of key infrastructure in the Nato ally.
Rattled confidence
Ramaphosa’s credibility as a key global player was left in tatters over the debacle as criticism mounted from within and outside SA.
It has rattled the ANC’s confidence in him to stand up to countries such as the US and UK, both Russian opponents in the Ukraine war. It has also caused the rand, bonds and markets to be shaken by Ramaphosa’s non-aligned policy.
The US was so upset that it publicly condemned Ramaphosa’s government for even contemplating siding with Russia, who has strong support from China, at the expense of the Western powers, which import far more SA manufactured goods than the country’s Brics counterparts.
Ramaphosa refused to kowtow despite the threat of the US withdrawing SA’s preferential access to its market. Despite Ramaphosa getting a standing ovation in ANC meetings every time he mentioned Putin’s name, he went to Russia to ask him to attend the Brics Summit virtually.
Ramaphosa, with the support of India, Brazil and all African countries, which have been invited to the Brics Summit in SA, stood up to both Russia and China, in the national interest.
Ramaphosa actually put SA’s economy ahead of the ANC and political ideology, according to several sources close to him.
“He was haunted by Oliver Tambo [then ANC president] going to the US during apartheid to ask for help and being turned away. We really did try every possible avenue to allow Putin to come to SA without defying the rule of law. For an ANC president to ask Putin not to come weighed heavily on him. The US turned its back on Tambo. Russia gave so many in the ANC not only a home but training to take on the apartheid government. The sympathy and support the US is giving Ukraine was not offered to South Africans then or to Palestinians today. Why?” another Ramaphosa aide asked.
African leaders
A diplomatic source added that the same countries that had long ignored Africa’s call for equitable representation in bodies such as the UN Security Council and for seats at the table with global economic superpowers, are threatened by Brics, a body representing emerging markets that aims for political and economic co-operation.
“It was important for the president that the Brics Summit happen here [in SA] not in China, because so many African leaders have asked to attend,” a source close to Ramaphosa said.
Business Day has confirmed with two sources close to Ramaphosa that the delay in announcing that Putin had agreed to attend the Brics Summit virtually was because he himself wanted all his Brics counterparts to agree “that it was the right decision” but also wanted to explain SA’s approach to his counterparts in the US and Europe.
“The president said from the start that SA would respect the rule of law. He has actually taken a neutral stance on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but others [with political interests], including those in the media, used the opportunity to corner the president to choose not just between Russia and Ukraine but also China and the US,” a Ramaphosa aide said.
That source added that in the end both US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping eventually understood Ramaphosa was acting in SA’s interest.
It is also understood that China was willing to host the Brics Summit to enable Putin to attend “so a strong signal could be sent to the US” but Xi was eventually convinced that a successful Brics Summit in Africa was more important than “putting one man [Putin] centre stage”.
Shown hesitiation
What is not yet confirmed is whether French President Emmanuel Macron, who has expressed interest in attending the summit, will attend.
“SA, Brazil and India are keen but China has shown some hesitation. It is a work in progress,” a diplomatic source said.
“SA’s biggest trading partners should be satisfied. So should China, because the president showed it is no less important than the US. The Brics Summit being held here [in Africa] sends a message to the US, Europe, Brazil, India and China that Africa is open for investment and is done [with] being exploited to suit their ends,” another source close to Ramaphosa said.
While dollarisation is high on China and Russia’s agenda for the summit, according to a diplomatic source the snubbing of Putin serves China’s agenda because it wants the support of its Brics counterparts to reject the just transition.
“China is arguing that industry developed the US, they used manufacturing to grow their economy. We were colonised, India was colonised and the same people that mined our raw materials are arguing for a just transition,” another diplomatic source said.
That source added that mining, manufacturing, energy production and agriculture could cause China to overtake the US as the “world’s biggest economy”.
The diplomatic source said the Brics summit is the start of the value chain that could cause Africa to feed itself and stop exporting the raw materials mined on the continent. It would allow “ourselves as Africans to see if we invest in our own countries; [that] Africa can provide the solution to Africa’s problems”.
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