SA’s political landscape will probably see a significant political shift if analysts and pollsters are to be believed.
There is mounting uncertainty over who will form the national and provincial governments after the general election pencilled in for May-August 2024.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is yet to announce the general election date, but it must be held this year, according to the constitution.
Politicians are already in electioneering mode and politics is likely to dominate the national agenda as parties slug it out in what has been described as the most crucial election since 1994.
The political year will start in earnest when the ANC hosts its January 8 celebrations in Mbombela, Mpumalanga, to mark its 112th birthday. Pundits will be on the lookout for hints of the ruling party’s electoral manifesto, which will be unveiled later in the year.
They have predicted that no party will get a majority in the 2024 polls and that coalitions could be the way forward after the election. In that event the ANC’s January 8 statement could be its last as the governing party.
Independent polls show that the ANC — rocked by administrative, financial and operational challenges — is likely to fall short of the 50% plus one required for it to form a national government on its own. It could lose power in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, the Free State and North West. They show it is highly unlikely to win back the Western Cape.
The polls also show that no other party is likely to emerge with an outright majority.
More than 100 new political parties, including ActionSA, the Patriotic Alliance, Rise Mzanzi and uMkhonto weSizwe (MKP), have jumped on the bandwagon. With the new parties and independent candidates standing for election there will be a third ballot for the first time since 1994.
The DA and EFF are expected to launch their manifestos in February. The EFF has indicated it will do so at the Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban, while the DA will do so in Pretoria.
The ANC will release its January 8 statement on Saturday. It is also set to hold its Mayihlome rally at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban and its Siyanqoba rally at the FNB Stadium in Johannesburg.
President Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver the last state of the nation address of his first term on February 8 in Cape Town.
Ongoing power and water outages around the country, as well as the soaring cost of living and high interest rates, will no doubt dominate the speech. SA, which is generally regarded as one of the world’s most unequal countries, notched up its highest level of unemployment in 2023.
Former president Jacob Zuma has returned to haunt the ANC.
Zuma presided over several years of state capture when his friends, the Gupta brothers, looted state coffers and yielded so much power that they were involved in the appointment of ministers and senior executives in parastatals. He is alleged to be the brains behind the formation of new political party MKP.
Zuma has said he will remain an ANC member, but he has also publicly announced he will not vote for the ANC. It’s a decision that was expected to be discussed at ruling party’s national executive committee meeting this weekend.
The working and middle classes, as well as business — which have borne the burden of state capture in SA — will be holding their breath ahead of the budget speech in February amid strong indications of pressure on the National Treasury to increase corporate and personal tax, largely due to continued corruption.
That would no doubt create a further trust deficit between South Africans and the ANC, which has been severely punished in recent elections. If the ANC loses the national or any provincial ballots there will have to be coalition talks.
Newly elected independent candidates will probably also occupy some parliamentary seats, changing the face of SA’s democracy for the first time in 30 years.
Parliament has approved controversial bills, including the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill. If Ramaphosa signs off on them they could have a major impact before the general election.
With TimesLIVE
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