Defiant Zuma’s fate in ANC could be sealed next week, says Mbalula

After weeks of campaigning for a rival formation and taunting the political party he led for 10 years, former president Jacob Zuma’s fate in the ANC could be decided as early as next week, secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said on Tuesday. 

Mbalula said he will provide more information next week. His statement follows remarks on national television by ANC chair Gwede Mantashe that, though there are party protocols to be followed before it takes any decision, the former president effectively walked out of the ANC.

Referring to Zuma, Mantashe said he should either “rest in peace” or “return in peace”. 

The ANC chair said there is no need to follow the protocols, which include a disciplinary hearing and possible expulsion, after Zuma’s announcement that he would vote for another political party, the uMkhonto weSizwe party, in the coming general election. 

“He does not need to be expelled. He has walked away. There is no need [to take him to a disciplinary committee]…. You cannot do that to a person who has walked away,” Mantashe told SABC. 

President Cyril Ramaphosa meanwhile steered clear of mentioning Zuma by name during his public engagements in Mpumalanga on Tuesday. But he did say that it would be a mistake for “anyone” to underestimate the party.

“The process of dysfunctionality and disunity in the ANC was making us weak, and I can testify that we are much stronger now. The ANC is much stronger than what it was a few years ago,” the president said. “Those who underestimate the ANC have seen nothing yet. They will see us because we are stronger now,” warned Ramaphosa. 

While the ANC leaders seemed fed up with the former president’s political antics, the party is in a Catch-22 situation as expelling him before a crucial general election could cost it votes. Zuma remains a popular figure for some in the party, especially in his home province, KwaZulu-Natal.

Will struggle

But it also needs to send a strong message to fellow members and stick to its constitution that does not allow what Zuma did.

Independent polls and those from the ANC itself have shown the party will struggle to garner the 50% + one it requires to govern nationally and in numerous provinces such as the Free State, Gauteng, the North West and KwaZulu-Natal itself.

The party cannot continue haemorrhaging support. With only a few months to go before the elections, due to be held between May and September, the party is frantically trying to stem the tide.  

Zuma, who suffered the humiliation of being recalled by the Ramaphosa-led ANC national executive committee (NEC) in 2018, has been a thorn in the sides of the party and its leader since then. 

Despite his retirement from active politics, he has remained a central though sometimes divisive figure in the party in KwaZulu-Natal, which is now hotly contested due to a resurgent IFP.

Zuma capped his dislike for the direction of the party under Ramaphosa with a clarion call for voters to dump “Ramaphosa’s ANC” and place their trust in newly formed political party uMkhonto weSizwe, of which he seems to be the central figure. 

The move by Zuma also spells more trouble for the ANC in its traditional stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal. 

Largely due to Zuma’s efforts, the province has delivered mass support for the ANC in the national vote and helped ensure the party maintain its overwhelming majority since the early 2000s. 

Zuma has been part of the ANC for more than 60 years and ruled it with an iron first for two terms as ANC president before ditching the party.

The party has been weakened by infighting and an inability to deal with corruption within its ranks.

The citizenry is also frustrated by load-shedding, a lack of jobs, an economy that is languishing in the doldrums and the rising cost of living.

But public and private comments from ANC leaders suggest there is no appetite to bring disciplinary action against Zuma and to expel him. 

Such a move, though in line with the party’s constitution, would be a “huge distraction” from the party’s election campaign, sources said.

omarjeeh@businesslive.co.za