The ANC, which is set to mark its 112th anniversary in Mbombela at the weekend, has deployed its top brass and election machinery in Mpumalanga where its electoral support has been on the decline for a decade.
The province has been marred by infighting among members, allegations of corruption, and poor service delivery. Still, those issues appear to have been put aside as the provincial leadership prepares to host the January 8 anniversary at Mbombela stadium on Saturday.
“Our people are not asking much from us, they just want a visible hand of service delivery. And the ANC, if it does so and resolves issues [of] electricity, water [supply] and all of that, it will remain in power forever,” said ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula.
The people of Mpumalanga’s commitment to the ANC was “unbelievable” and the party faithful were renewing their vows to the ruling party, Mbalula added.
“This is a province where we have managed to deal with squabbles in the party. It’s a solid movement here, in the government and in the party. Mpumalanga was ravaged by petty political squabbles ... But the comrades who came in here and led the ANC have shown us their total commitment to doing things right and uniting the party,” he said.
“And the elements that are rogue, some are facing justice, it’s grinding against them, some have left the ANC. Good people are staying in the ANC and the party cleanses itself through the renewal project.”
ANC leaders have been criss-crossing the province, speaking to communities, youths, churches and traditional leaders.
“The people told us that they don’t care about the ANC squabbles. They are saying we want you to be united, and we want you to deliver for us. And the comrades in Mpumalanga have heard that message," Mbalula said.
The ANC's tripartite alliance partners — the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the SA Communist Party (SACP) had also come on board in the province, he said.
“You cannot go and convince people to vote for you when you are not united. The alliance, Cosatu, SACP, and Sanco ... We are just a united movement going forward. That’s one strength of the movement that will win us votes and claw back on the weaknesses that we have had in the past.”
SACP provincial secretary Lucky Mbuyane echoed those sentiments. “There is coherence within the alliance, we are running programmes together, the challenges of the past are no longer existing,” he said, adding the mood on the ground was “very good” and that the people were “receptive”.
“I have had the privilege of criss-crossing the province, I’ve been to the Gert Sibande region, I’ve been to eNkangala, Hazyview, and Bushbuckridge, the response from people is very good,” Mbuyane said, adding that no organisation other than the ANC could govern SA.
However, he admitted the party’s support in the province had declined but stressed that was a national phenomenon. “What is affecting our support to go down is corruption within the ANC-led government. The posture of the ANC is to renew the organisation and get rid of corrupt people.”
In the 2019 election the ruling party received 70.5% of the vote, down from 78.2% in 2014, 85.5% in 2009 and 86.3% in 2009.
ANC Mpumalanga chair Mandla Ndlovu and Cosatu provincial secretary Thabo Mokoena didn’t respond immediately to requests for comment.
Nelson Mandela University political analyst Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast said ANC’s relatively poor performance in the 2019 election came after “the electorate thought it had moved away from its values of providing a better life for all”.
“The ANC hasn’t been winning elections because of its ability to deliver, but because of its collective memory as a former liberation movement. Now, the majority of voters are young people who don’t have the history of liberation, so you can’t tell them about Oliver Tambo or Mandela. The romanticism of the past, glorification of history, and preservation of tradition are things of the past,” Breakfast said.
The ANC hasn’t done enough to address corruption, he added. “What happened to the findings of the Zondo commission? They have not been implemented, so how does that sit with the renewal agenda? It’s all talk and no action.
“Mbalula just said over weekend that ANC defended the indefensible by lying to the people of the country. The ANC doesn’t take the fight against corruption seriously. Those are some of concerns the public has. The values of the ANC have been eroded by the institutionalisation of corruption.”
Anthony Butler, an author, columnist and professor of political studies at the University of Cape Town, said the chances of the ANC reversing its electoral decline “are very slim”, and that while it was hard to predict the outcome of the 2024 election “most of the projections look like a continued decline of the ANC’s vote share”.
National support for the ruling party has spiralled downwards for years. In the 2004 national election it received 69.6% of the vote; that slipped to 65.9% in 2009, 62.1% in 2014, and 57.5% in 2019.
Several polls, including one by the party, indicate its support could drop below 50% in this year’s national and provincial elections.
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