A latest survey by Johannesburg-based think-tank the Brenthurst Foundation shows the ANC’s electoral support plummeting below 40% as political parties up the ante in the build-up to the crucial 2024 national and provincial elections on May 29.
The phone survey, which polled 1,506 registered voters nationally between February 12 and 28, shows ANC support falling to 39% nationally on a 66% turnout. The survey has a 3% margin of error.
The survey is in line with several others — including those by Standard Bank, Wits University, the Social Research Foundation, the ANC and Ipsos — indicating the governing party’s electoral support could fall below 50% for the first time since 1994.
With this possibility in mind, the DA has entered into a pre-elections coalition pact with other opposition parties, including ActionSA, IFP, Freedom Front Plus, ACDP and Isanco called the multiparty charter for SA (MPC), with the aim of unseating the ANC.
The latest survey shows the DA support increasing to 27%, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party — which is backed by former president Jacob Zuma — 13%, EFF 10%, IFP 2% and MPC (DA, IFP, ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus) 33%.
Gauteng, SA’s economic and financial hub, which contributes nearly 40% to national GDP, is set to be a battleground province during the elections, with opposition party leaders, including DA Gauteng leader Solly Msimanga, EFF MP Mbuyiseni Ndlozi, ActionSA Gauteng chair Funzi Ngobeni and Rise Mzansi national chair Vuyiswa Ramokgopa, all seeking to topple ANC Gauteng chair Panyaza Lesufi as premier.
In Gauteng, the ANC falls to 34% from the 51% it mustered in the 2019 general elections, DA increases to 32%, EFF 11%, MK 6%, ActionSA 5%, Build One SA (Bosa) 5% and MPC 38%. In KwaZulu-Natal, where Zuma has been criss-crossing the province, urging voters to support his political project, the MK party is projected to get 25%, ANC 20%, DA 19%, IFP 19% and EFF 14%.
Of those polled, 32% believed the DA-run Western Cape was the best governed province in SA, followed by Gauteng with 18%, KwaZulu-Natal 9%, Eastern Cape 6%, Limpopo 5%, Mpumalanga 4%, Free State 3%, North West 1% and Northern Cape 1%.
The City of Cape Town was the best governed metro at 33%, with Johannesburg at 12%, Nelson Mandela Bay 9%, eThekwini 6%, Ekurhuleni 6%, Tshwane 6%, Mangaung 5% and Buffalo City 3%.
The metros of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni are run by a coalition, including the ANC and EFF, while Tshwane is governed by a DA-led coalition.
Meanwhile, Moody’s Investor Service last week sent the rating of Ekurhuleni further into junk territory and placed Tshwane’s on review for a downgrade for failure to submit its audited financial statements.
The ratings agency downgraded Ekurhuleni’s long-term issuer (domestic), senior unsecured ratings to Caa2, three notches below the highest junk status in a reflection of a very high credit risk. Moody’s also put the City of Tshwane’s long-term issuer of Caa2 and its national scale rating of Caa1.za on review for further cuts.
The Brenthurst Foundation survey put both the DA and ANC at 33% for being “most effective at governing”, followed by the EFF at 9%, IFP 5%, ActionSA 1%, Freedom Front Plus 1%, other 2%, and 16% didn’t know.
Of those polled, 80% believed SA was headed in the wrong direction, while 17% thought otherwise and 3% did not know.
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