Numerous polls showing that ANC support is likely to plummet below 50% have come under scrutiny by politicians and analysts, some of whom are questioning their political leanings and veracity.
South Africans go the polls on May 29 to elect their provincial and national governments. As is the case in periods leading up to elections, pollsters are releasing their results regularly.
Such a trend is well established in mature democracies and countries with well-established information networks. But on the continent, they are a relatively new phenomenon and often regarded with suspicion and mistrust.
Before accepting the outcome of such polls, most politicians, political observers and analysts often look at who the pollster is and their ideological leanings before considering their findings.
Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. They help politicians understand what the public wants, and the public to understand who is popular at the ballot box.
They can also be used to swing opinions and capture the undecided voter.
Recently, a Johannesburg-based think-tank, The Brenthurst Foundation, established by the Oppenheimer family in 2004, released its latest poll showing the ANC’s support could plummet below 40%.
While in line with other findings, including one conducted by the ANC itself, a number of politicians interviewed by Business Day still had reservations about the findings. It is in line with several others — including by Standard Bank, Wits University, the Social Research Foundation and Ipsos, a multinational market research and consulting firm with headquarters in Paris, France — indicating the governing party’s electoral support could fall below 50% for the first time.
The Oppenheimer family has previously funded the DA and ActionSA.
The survey, which polled 1,506 registered voters nationally between February 12 and 28, shows ANC support falling to 39% nationally on a 66% turnout. The survey has a 3% margin of error.
DA federal council chair Helen Zille told Business Day recently: “The Ipsos polls have been wrong before every election I can remember.”
In its final election outlook for the 2019 national and provincial elections, Ipsos said if all registered voters turned up to vote (100% voter turnout), the ANC was likely to get 56.9%, 64% on a low voter turnout of 60%; and 61% on a medium voter turnout of 71%. According to Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) results, the ANC received 57.5%.
A total of 26.7-million were registered to vote in 2019 and voter turnout was 66.05%.
In the same poll, Ipsos said the DA could get 15.2% (on 100% voter turnout), 19% on 71% turnout and 17% on 61% voter turnout. SA’s official opposition party ended up getting 20.7%.
The EFF was expected to get 9.45% on 100% voter turnout, 11% on 71% turnout and 10% on 61% voter turnout. The red berets mustered 10.8% in the 2019 general election.
The IFP was projected to get 2.16% (on 100% voter turnout), 3% (71%) and 3% (61%). It ended up with 3.3%. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) was projected to get 0.76% (100%), 1% (71%) and 1% (61%). It ended up getting 2.38%.
Ipsos director Mari Harris did not respond to a request for comment.
Regarding the latest Brenthurst survey, elections analyst Paul Berkowitz said the sample size of 1,506 was not “too small” as most surveys sampled 1,500 people. The 3% margin of error, he said, meant the ANC’s true range could be between 36% and 42%.
“If the sample is bigger then the margin of error gets smaller.” Berkowitz, stressed, however, that a bigger sample was “more expensive” to extrapolate. “The bigger the sample size, the more accurate [the survey gets], but it gets more expensive.”
The best way to execute a survey was through face to face interaction with respondents but “that’s much more expensive than phoning them”.
Nelson Mandela University political analyst Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast said the quality of any survey depended on the methodology used. “It’s like mathematics, the validity of the answer depends on the formula used. If sampling is wrong it impacts on data analytics and findings,” said Breakfast.
‘No outright winner’
“But the writing is on the wall: there won’t be an outright winner. It’s quite clear in my view that the ANC will fall below 50%,” he said. Without mentioning the organisations he was referring to, Breakfast said: “Some think-tanks are politically inclined. Even the research that comes out follows a particular line of thinking of certain political parties. I’m not casting aspersions but some think-tanks are pushing a propaganda campaign.”
Stellenbosch University political analyst Prof Amanda Gouws said the polls were necessary as a lot of voters had not yet made up their minds on who to vote for. She said some of the surveys would “change a lot in the build up to the election”.
The Brenthurst survey shows DA support increasing to 27%, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party — which is backed by former president Jacob Zuma — with 13%, EFF 10%, IFP 2% and the multiparty charter (DA, IFP, ActionSA and FF+) 33%.
“What I found curious is that the numbers are so high for the MK party. The question is: where are the ANC votes going if they are set to fall down to 39%? I think it [Brenthurst] is not that accurate and it’s going to change the closer we get to elections,” Gouws said.
Brenthurst Foundation research director Ray Hartley said the credibility of the poll would only be known after the election. He, however, said the survey was reliable as it had interviewed a “decent sample size” matching the demographics of the country. “We are in a rapidly changing political landscape ... a new political formation called MK has entered the scene and that’s changed a lot of dynamics,” said Hartley, a former editor of the Sunday Times newspaper.
Hartley, who described the MK party as a wild card, said there could be some changes ahead as the ANC had not yet “fully unleashed its electoral budget”, which could help it “claw back some support”. “For now, we are fairly confident where we are [with our polling].”
Social Research Foundation board chair Frans Cronje said: “Our polls to date are conducted by Victory Research, a global market research company, with an international client roster. We are 100% confident in our sampling and methodology as it is used the world over, adheres to best practice and has delivered very accurate results.
“For example, Victory Research’s polling in 2019, four days before the election and modelled for 65% turnout (final turnout was 66%), had the ANC on 57% (it ended on 57.5%) the DA on 23% (it ended on 20.8%) and the EFF on 11% (it ended on 10.8%). You won’t get anything better than that anywhere in the world.”
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