SA politics are headed for a major overhaul post the May 29 general elections.
The ANC is in danger of losing its majority for the first time since 1994 in the national ballot.
Even if it manages to get a projected 9-million votes with a 66% voter turnout a deep dive of the outcome of the ANC’s list process suggests President Cyril Ramaphosa has been sent a clear message by the party’s branches that it is time for a change of guard in terms of who should be the national and provincial executives around the country.
Not only did more than 30 ministers and deputy ministers not make it onto the ANC’s new list of preferred candidates to parliament but some of his most senior ministers will not return as MPs.
Among those that either retired from public office or did not make it onto the list at all are public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan and deputy justice minister John Jeffery.
Health minister Joe Phaahla, 67, is not on the list, while higher education minister Blade Nzimande made it only into 70th place while his deputy, Buti Manamela, is 17th.
A key Ramaphosa appointment, electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa made it in at 45.
Basic education minister Angie Motshekga only makes it into parliament through support from the ANC in Gauteng on the province to national list.
So far, there has been little if any response from the market, which seems mainly to be concerned that finance minister Enoch Godongwana — who comes in at only 62 on the ANC list — should continue as the head of National Treasury.
Deputy finance minister David Masondo, who at 49 is almost two decades Godongwana’s junior, is much higher up the list at 11th. International relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor, 70, is at number 86 while her younger deputy, Alvin Botes, is ranked 24th.
Political and electoral analysts say while Ramaphosa has nothing to lose post elections if he is elected for a second and last term, he has not shown an inclination towards unnecessary change thus far.
“The question is, are these young people, who are deputy ministers, now going to energise people to go out and vote for the ANC,” electoral analyst Wayne Sussman said.
It is the president’s constitutional prerogative to decide on his cabinet but how many MPs he has to choose from will depend on how many seats the ANC wins.
This will be complicated by a loss of majority and needing to form a coalition government that includes parties who would be likely to demand cabinet seats of their own
“With every election we have been at a cross roads. That doesn't mean an immediate implosion, but we have seen the ANC’s decline in successive elections and yet we keep doing the same things. With every election there is an opportunity for change but what is significant is if the ANC drops to less than 50% of the vote this time. That will be dramatic,” professor Mcebisi Ndletyana said.
It is also notable that of the ANC’s provincial to national list, the party in KwaZulu-Natal seems to want to leave the door open to sending provincial leaders to parliament.
“All indications are the ANC is doing badly in KwaZulu-Natal,” Ndletyana said.
The 200-candidate list also shows the party has ignored the recommendations of its integrity committee, choosing instead to include many implicated in state capture or tainted with corruption scandals.
Any decision to exclude those accused of state capture from its provincial and national candidate lists would have been seen as effectively extending the remit of the party’s step-aside rule as none of those accused has been charged in court.
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