The ANC’s widely expected decline in electoral support in the general election could force it into a power-sharing agreement with smaller parties, political analyst Sanusha Naidu said.
Several polls suggest the ANC’s voter share could fall below 50% for the first time as the electorate has grown discouraged with the party’s underwhelming performance in government.
The electorate has grown disillusioned over the ANC’s poor approach to dealing with systemic corruption, little or no service delivery, entrenched poverty and widening inequality, while its leaders continue to blame apartheid for the many crises buffeting the country.
Speaking during a virtual event organised by JSE-listed financial services group PSG Financial Services, Naidu said it was of little significance that the ANC was expected to lose its majority during the elections. “The big question is how big the decline will be,” she said. “Is it going to be less than 50%? I’m leaning towards 48%, 49%. I think what’s going to happen is the ANC will lose support in a manner enabling it to negotiate with smaller parties.”
Naidu said the ANC, which is dogged by financial, administrative and operational challenges, had not acclimatised to the fact that “the tide has turned in SA for the ANC”.
The Sunday Times has reported that President Cyril Ramaphosa urged the ANC top brass to “put their shoulder to the wheel” to ensure the party wins at least 57% — or about 11-million votes — in the May 29 polls, warning the election is “ours to lose’’.
Voters uncertain
In a leaked recording of an ANC national executive committee (NEC) meeting last week, Ramaphosa read the riot act to his fellow ANC leaders, saying there would be consequences if they failed to make a campaigning contribution.
Naidu said there was a lot of uncertainty and unpredictability among civil society and diplomatic missions about which way the elections would go: “This election is not a done deal at the moment.”
There were more than 27-million registered voters in the country. “In our electoral landscape, you have a third of registered voters who are uncertain what they are going to do. So if you’re DA or the ANC you are not going to sit on your laurels. This election will not be business as usual. You’re not sure what’s going to happen,” Naidu said.
She said a survey a week before the election could give a better idea of which political parties voters were likely to opt for.
Cracks
Naidu took issue with the multiparty charter, saying there were already “cracks” in it.
The charter is a coalition of opposition parties — including the DA, ActionSA, IFP, Independent SA National Civic Organisation, Freedom Front Plus, United Independent Movement and the Spectrum National Party — aimed at removing the ANC from power.
DA leader John Steenhuisen recently came under fire after he framed opposition parties campaigning for votes in the DA-run Western Cape as “mercenary parties” whose sole intention was to loot the province.
ActionSA, which is part of the multiparty charter, is reported to have not taken kindly to the remarks.
According to the coalition, power will be shared in proportion to election results, appointments to government positions will be based on merit, the cabinet will reflect the diversity of the country and lifestyle audits of all members of the executive will be implemented.
“Coalitions have become fragile because everyone wants to win seats in the National Assembly. Coalitions in SA are extremely transactional: I give you my seat, what do I get?” said Naidu.
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